52% prefer Brazil closer to China and not to the USA

For 52% of voters, Brazil should strengthen its trade relations with China more than with the United States, while 35% defend greater rapprochement with the North Americans. The data is from the research PowerDataheld from July 18th to 20th.

The result is the opposite of that recorded in the same period of 2025: at the time, 59% said they were “Brazil is better off maintaining trade relations with the USA”while 32% expressed a preference for China.

The survey PowerData asked the following question to the interviewees: “Do you think it is better for Brazil to have more trade relations with China or the United States?“.

The research was carried out by PowerDatagroup company Poder360Journalism, with its own resources. Data were collected through calls to cell phones and landlines. There were 2,500 interviews in 147 municipalities in the 27 units of the Federation. The margin of error is 2 percentage points. The confidence interval is 95%. This is not a voting intention survey and, for this reason, there is no need to register with the Electoral Court.

To reach 2,500 interviews that proportionally fill (as they appear in society) the groups by sex, age, income, education and geographic location, the PowerData makes tens of thousands of phone calls. Often, there are more than 100 thousand calls until interviewees are found that faithfully represent the population as a whole. Find out more about the methodology by reading this text.

USA: BAD IMAGE

The deterioration of the image of the United States among Brazilian voters had already been signaled in the survey PoderData/Aya held from July 12th to 15th. On that occasion, the interviewees answered the following question: “Regarding possible support from the president of the United States, Donald Trump, for a candidate for president of Brazil, do you believe that [é positivo, negativo, não faz diferença]?”.

The majority (42%) stated that this support would have a negative impact on the chosen candidate’s campaign.

The relationship between Brazil and the United States has been experiencing a period of instability since the beginning of President Donald Trump’s (Republican Party) second term. The scenario reflects the political-ideological differences between the governments of the 2 countries.

Trump is an ally of the Bolsonaro family. In July 2025, determined a 50% tariff on Brazilian products exported to the United States. The measure was justified by the treatment given by the Federal Supreme Court to the former president Jair Bolsonaro (PL) in the process in which he responded for attempted coup d’état. Later, part of the taxation was reversed.

Tensions rose again on June 1. The US government announced a proposal to impose a 25% tariff on a wide list of products imported from Brazil. The allegation is that the country had adopted practices considered unfair and harmful to North American companies. The pricing has been confirmed on July 15th.

On Thursday (Jul 23), US trade representative, Jamison Greer, announced another 12.5% ​​surcharge on Brazilian products, alleging the existence of slave labor in the production of goods sent to the USA.

In response, the president Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (PT) intensified criticism of the North American government and reinforced the discourse in defense of Brazilian sovereignty.

At the same time, the tariff accelerated the commercial rapprochement between Brazil and China. In 2025, the increase in Brazilian exports to the Chinese market neutralized the decline caused by US tariffs. From August to November, the value shipped to China grew 28.6% compared to the same period in 2024. Exports destined for the USA fell 25.1%. The expectation is that the movement will be repeated with the new wave of tariffs.

In contrast to his distance from the Trump administration, Lula also maintains warm diplomatic relations with China. The PT member has been to the Asian country twice since taking office in January 2023. The Chinese president has also been received by the Brazilian at Palácio do Alvorada.

STRATIFICATION

O PowerData detailed the responses by demographics, such as gender, age, region, education and income:

PODERDATA

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🎧 PODERDATACAST

On Thursday (23.Jul.2026), the videocast of Poder360 about electoral research, he spoke with the former Brazilian ambassador to the USA Rubens Barbosa. He spoke about the impacts of tariffs on Lula’s evaluation and how foreign policy influences the election.

Watch (42min):

SEARCH AGGREGATOR

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METHODOLOGY

The search PowerData was carried out from July 18 to 20, 2026, through calls to cell phones and landlines. There were 2,500 interviews in 147 municipalities in the 27 units of the Federation. The margin of error is 2 percentage points. The confidence interval is 95%.

The interviews were carried out by telephone (for landlines and cell phones), using the URA system (Audible Response Unit), in which the interviewee listens to recorded questions and responds using the device’s keyboard.

To make reading easier, the search results have been rounded. Because of this process, it is possible that the sum of some of the results is different from 100%. Differences between total frequencies and percentages in variable crossing tables may appear due to non-response occurrences.

This study was carried out with the company’s own resources. PowerDataa research company that is part of the media group Poder360 Journalism.