China will have the greatest absolute GDP gain by 2030, IMF projects

China is expected to record the largest absolute gain in Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in the world by 2030, according to projections by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) published in the report World Economic Outlook April 2026.

Although the United States is expected to remain the largest global economy in absolute values, Chinese growth will be the most significant of the decade in terms of accumulated economic expansion, consolidating Beijing’s weight in the reorganization of the world economy.

The IMF report projects that the Chinese economy will reach US$26.05 trillion in 2030, remaining the second largest on the planet, while the United States is expected to reach US$37.68 trillion.

Despite the structural slowdown highlighted by the international organization, China will continue to be the main engine of global growth in absolute terms, supported by the expansion of the domestic market, technological expansion and the strengthening of strategic industrial sectors.

The IMF estimates that the next decade will be marked by a scenario of less global economic dynamism, with average global growth stabilized at around 3.1%, below the pattern observed before the pandemic.

Among the factors that put pressure on the international economy are geoeconomic fragmentation, conflicts in the Middle East, increased military spending and the instability of global logistics chains.

Even pointing out challenges such as population aging, the real estate crisis and falling productivity, the report highlights China’s attempt to rebalance its economic model, reducing dependence on exports and expanding domestic consumption.

The document also cites Chinese investments in innovation and advanced manufacturing as central elements to sustain growth in the medium term.

India appears as the economy with the fastest expansion rate among large countries, maintaining projected growth of 6.5% per year until 2031.

According to the IMF, the country could overtake Germany and become the third largest economy in the world within this decade, driven by the expansion of the middle class, investments in infrastructure and the expansion of the technology industry.

The main European economies are expected to face a prolonged period of low growth. Germany, the United Kingdom, France and Italy appear in the report with stagnant productivity, high public debt and difficulties in recovering the industrial dynamism lost after the energy shocks and recent geopolitical tensions.

Brazil, in turn, is expected to occupy eighth position among the largest economies on the planet in 2030, with a GDP projected at US$3.2 trillion.

The IMF highlights the country’s positive points as its international reserves, flexible exchange rate and ability to absorb external shocks, although it estimates that Brazilian growth will remain moderate, around 2.5% per year.