China surprises with solid growth in the first quarter

The Chinese economy began 2025 with a 5.4% growth in the first quarter, above market expectations and in line with the official goal of 5% for the year. The result, announced by the National Office of Statistics (NBS), reaffirms the resilience of the Chinese economic model even in the face of external pressures caused by the new round of US tariffs.

The quarterly data, equivalent to $ 4.42 trillion, reflects a combination of well -coordinated internal factors: industrial production growth (+6.5%), robust investments in manufacturing and infrastructure (+9.1% and+5.8%, respectively), 5% increase in sales of services and stimulus for popular consumption.

According to NBS deputy director Sheng Laiyun, “innovation has played an increasingly central role”, consolidating itself as a long-term strategic axis.

Despite the positive performance, the international scenario imposes challenges. Since February, the US government under Donald Trump has resumed its unilateral tariff policy against China, raising up to 145% of more than half of Chinese products. Beijing answered with symmetrical rates of 125% on US goods, qualifying Washington’s action as “an attack on free trade.”

Analysts heard by vehicles such as Reuters, New York Times and SCMP indicate that anticipation of exports may have artificially inflated March numbers. Even so, the Chinese government has shown confidence. “We are ready to face any external uncertainty with stability and incremental policies,” said Prime Minister Li Qiang in a meeting with economists.

More diverse foreign trade and reduction of dependence on a single commercial partner are key elements of Beijing’s strategy to face the new tariff war. In addition, gains with innovation and digital economy expansion offer long -term concrete alternatives.

The same day it released the GDP data, the Chinese government launched a plan with 48 measures to boost service consumption in 2025. The package includes actions in sectors such as elderly, day care centers, domestic services and education, reinforcing the role of social welfare as a dynamic element of growth.

The proposal is part of a broader effort of structural transformation, which in the last five years has made internal demand the main engine of the economy – with more than 80% of the contribution to growth from the domestic market. According to Sheng Laiyun, the goal is to consolidate “a model focused on innovation, quality of life and sustainable development.”

In addition to consumption, high -tech sectors performed significant performance: the intelligent equipment industry grew 13.2% in revenue, while investment in digitization advanced 8.7%. Intensive use of artificial intelligence, big data and green industrial technologies is paving the way for a new phase of qualitative growth.

Popular confidence in gradual reconstruction

Although general indicators are positive, the Chinese government recognizes the need to consolidate the recovery of consumer confidence. Moderation still marks part of family decisions, a reflection of a cautious environment after the most intense phase of correction in the real estate sector. Still, per capita income rose 5.5% in the quarter, and employment remained stable-factors that point to a gradual and well-managed recovery.

Real estate investment fell 9.9% in the quarter, but the impact has been compensated for the growth in infrastructure and high value -added manufacturing. The government has reiterated that the focus is on “housing to live, not to speculate”, as part of the process of structural rebalancing of the housing sector. New growth opportunities even emerge with the conversion of part of the urban inventory into accessible housing, aligning urban development with improving the quality of life.

Reaction of markets and projections for the year

Despite the above -expected growth, the financial market reacted with caution. The Shanghai index closed with light high, and Yuan fell discreetly against the dollar. International banks such as UBS, Nomura, Anz and Goldman Sachs reviewed their projections to 2025, situating the growth between 3.4% and 4.2% – but all admit that any stimulus packets can reverse this picture.

The government, in turn, has already signaled that it is ready to act. “It is essential to ensure effective performance already in the second quarter,” said Li Qiang. New fiscal and monetary measures are expected to be adopted in the second half, maintaining the balance between long -term growth and stability.