Jurors begin to decide the course of the US elections in Trump trial

The jury in the case in which the former president of the United States, Donald Trump, is a defendant in New York begins deliberating this Wednesday (29) to decide whether the far-right leader is innocent or criminally guilty of having manipulated an accounting payment of US$130,000 to porn actress Stormy Daniels.

The trial began five weeks ago and enters the final stretch this Wednesday (29). There is no deadline for a conclusion, and deliberations can take hours to weeks.

For prosecutor Joshua Steinglass, the Republican intentionally violated the law to hide from voters, on the eve of the 2016 election, false business records to cover up payments to porn actress Stormy Daniels.

This is the first time that a former American president has faced criminal prosecution. In total, Trump faces 34 charges and, if he is convicted, he could face up to four years in prison. In US justice, most cases are decided by a group of jurors. In this case, there are 12 people who must reach a consensus.

Prosecutors need to prove that Trump is guilty “beyond a reasonable doubt”, the standard of certainty required by US law. For American analysts, if he is convicted, even partially, there is reason for the Republican to worry.

A Reuters/Ipsos opinion poll released a month ago shows that Joe Biden will increase his lead from 1 to 3 percentage points if he is convicted by the courts. The margin rises to 7 points if he is serving a prison sentence (a sentence considered unlikely in this case).

If the businessman is found guilty, it is possible that he will lose the support of a margin of the electorate that, although small, is essential in an extremely close election.