Published 07/07/2025 17:24 | Edited 01/07/2025 17:30
United States President Donald Trump’s decision to cut more than 80% of US agency funding for international development (USAID) could cause more than 14 million additional deaths by 2030, including 4.5 million children under five, according to a study published on Monday (30) in The Lancet journal.
The measure, officially announced in March by Secretary of State Marco Rubio, led to the suspension of thousands of humanitarian assistance programs in more than 60 countries – with effects already visible in places such as refugee camps in Kenya, where food feed were reduced to the lowest level ever recorded.
“This is a comparable shock on scale to a global pandemic or a great armed conflict,” said Davide Rasella, a researcher at the Barcelona Global Health Institute (Isglobal) and one of the study’s authors.
Study reveals lethal austerity and reversal of achievements
The research was led by experts from the Institute of Collective Health of the Federal University of Bahia (UFBA), in partnership with international institutions such as Isglobal and University of California. Scientists analyzed data from 133 countries between 2001 and 2021 and concluded that USAID’s investments were responsible for avoiding more than 91 million deaths – of which 30 million were children.
Among the areas most affected by cuts are HIV, malaria, neglected tropical diseases, child malnutrition, diarrhea, tuberculosis and maternal mortality.
“These deaths would be avoidable if the programs were maintained. Abrupt suspension compromises two decades of progress,” says Caterina Monti, also a researcher at Isglobal.
Trump, Musk and the ideological dismantling of international cooperation
Since returning to the White House in early 2025, Trump has put a radical austerity plan, led by a private sector billionaires, among them Elon Musk, with the goal of reducing the “state size” and eliminating what they classify as “ideological spending.”
USAID, the largest government agency of humanitarian aid on the planet, which represents only 0.3% of the US federal budget, was accused by Trump and its allies of supporting “progressive” projects abroad and wasting resources.
“Our intention is to transfer the management of the remaining programs to the State Department, with supervision of Congress, to ensure more efficiency and less politicization,” said Rubio. Of the more than 5,000 active programs, only one thousand remained standing.
UN Alert for mass hunger and silent deaths
In practice, the effects of cuts are already visible. Reports of the BBC in refugee camps in Kenya describe children with signs of severe malnutrition, such as wrinkled and stripped skin, while UN workers denounce a situation of silent hunger that advances without fuss.
“Hundreds of thousands of people are dying slowly,” said a UN employee who works in Kakuma.
The reduction in US financing took other donor countries, such as Germany, the United Kingdom and France, then the same way, aggravating the collapse scenario.
Historical comparisons: preventable tragedy greater than wars and pandemics
The researchers draw attention to the magnitude of the projected humanitarian tragedy. The 14 million deaths by 2030, if the cuts persist, surpass the 10 million dead from World War I and fold COVID-19 pandemic estimates, which has killed just over 7 million to this day, according to WHO.
“This is not an inevitable tragedy. It is an ideology and misinformation -based political decision,” says James Macinko of the University of California.
The researcher also emphasized the low per capita cost of investments:
“American citizens contribute about 17 cents a day to USAID. It’s hard to believe that someone, knowing that, would accept to cut such an efficient and vital program.”
UN Conference in Seville: I appeal for reversing the cuts
The study of the study took place during the UN largest conference on international aid in a decade, held this week in Seville, Spain. Global leaders warned of the urgent need to restore financing and save millions of lives, focusing on children, refugees, pregnant women and conflict zones populations.
Representatives of civil society and multilateral agencies have appealed to the US Congress reversing the cuts later this year. “The story will charge dearly of those who are silent before this announced catastrophe,” said a Unicef representative.
The future of international cooperation in check
Trump government offensive against USAID is part of a vision that discredits multilateralism, reduces south-north cooperation and promotes isolationism. Experts warn that, in addition to direct deaths, the dismantling of international aid compromises the fight against future pandemics, the confrontation of climate change and the geostrategic interests themselves.
“Helping is not charity. It’s stability. And global stability has always been an asset of American diplomacy,” summarizes Rasella.
The world watches in real time the disintegration of one of the pillars of global health. And, according to the researchers, it is still possible to reverse this course – but time is running out.
Source: vermelho.org.br
