Against forecasts, Luisa González advances and will play second round in Ecuador

The presidential dispute in Ecuador will be decided in the 2nd round, disputed by current President Daniel Noboa (National Democratic Action) and Luisa González (Citizen Revolution). With 91% of the ballot boxes in Ecuador, CNE (National Electoral Council) data indicates that Noboa has 44.34% of the valid votes, while González raised 43.87% in this Sunday’s election (9).

Another 14 candidates competed, but did not get enough votes. According to the electoral agency, there were 6.77% of null votes and 2.11% whites. Participation in the election was more than 83%.

Since none of the candidates reached 50% of the valid votes or 40% with a difference of 10 points to second place, as required by the Constitution, the final decision will take place on April 13.

The holding of the second round contrary to the projections of ballot research released shortly after the closing of the vote and the climate of “already won” of traditional press vehicles, which even indicated a victory of Noboa in the first round with 50.12 % of the votes.

One of the surveys, conducted by the Diego Tello Flores Institute and presented by TC Television and Teleamazonas, contaminated public perception and generated a wave of misinformation on social networks, leading sectors to believe that the claim would already be decided.

The election occurs when the country is experiencing a climate of fear for the violence of organized crime and for violations of the human rights of security agents, chanceled by Noboa.

This is the second time that Ecuadorians have been on the polls in 16 months. In October 2023, former President Guillermo Lasso anticipated the presidential elections. He used the constitutional clause known as “cross death” to dissolve the National Assembly after undergoing an impeachment process. Lasso did not compete in the elections.

Resilience of Luisa González and surprise in the result

Given the expectation of a victory in the first round to Noboa, the final results surprised political analysts and media outlets that predicted a greater advantage of the president. The newspaper The universe and local TV channels even released scenarios that pointed to a possible defeat by Luisa González in the first round of the vote.

For the Correst candidate, the result reflects popular dissatisfaction with the management of noboa and a resistance to the policies of economic tidy and militarization of public safety.

“They took our defeat for certain, but we resisted. Now we have a new opportunity to change Ecuador, ”said González during a statement on Sunday night.

“We are the great winners. We are facing a presidential candidate who used state assets to campaign, violating all legal regulations, ”said González.

González was euphoric and spoke in Quito to his supporters, taking the opportunity to congratulate the third place, from the indigenous movement, and ask for his support. Already Noboa, whose team had prepared a party of victory, canceled it and did not perform to talk to its supporters.

González’s performance strengthens the opposition and highlights a highly polarized electoral scenario. The candidate was able to consolidate her electoral base even in the face of a campaign marked by persecutions to the correism and the predominance of a criminal hardening speech adopted by Noboa.

Complaints of irregularities in the OAS: noboa is accused of electoral violation

The Organization of American States (OAS) announced on Sunday that it will include in its final report on Ecuador elections reports of electoral violation committed by President Daniel Noboa. The main irregularity pointed out is the fact that Noboa remained in office during the election campaign, without requesting a license from the Presidency, as required by Ecuadorian legislation.

The head of the OAS mission, Heraldo Muñoz, said that several political forces reported that Noboa’s permanence in the presidency generated an imbalance in the electoral dispute.

“We hear these observations and this is a matter that will be indicated in our report. Indeed, there are some political forces that expressed this opinion, ”said Muñoz, who was once a Chancellor of Chile.

According to the Ecuador electoral law, authorities seeking reelection must move away from their positions to ensure equal conditions in the claim. However, noboa avoided this measure, possibly to prevent his vice president, Verónica Abad, from taking office. The agent and his deputy broke politically shortly after his inauguration.

Candidate Luisa González (Citizen Revolution) and other opposition sectors have classified Noboa’s stance as an attempt to instrumentalize the state machine to her advantage, violating the constitution and the rules of the electoral process. Former President Rafael Correa also publicly reported what he considers irregular favoritism of the current head of state.

In addition to the formal denunciations to the OAS, the permanence of noboa in the presidency was also criticized by international observers and opposing parties, who point to an environment of democratic fragility in the country. Still, the Ecuador Electoral Court did not adopt measures to force him to move away.

Next steps: alliances and the dispute for the second round

With the second round definition for April 13, attention turns to the political alliances each candidate will try to build in the coming weeks. Luisa González should seek the support of progressive sectors and the indigenous movement, represented by Leonidas Iza of Pachakutik, who was third in the dispute with 4.8% of the votes.

Already noboa should try to consolidate his right -wing electorate and attract votes by Andrea González, from the Society Patriotic Party (PSP), which had 2.7% of the votes. However, the posture of sectors of the center right and the center left leave the second round in a climate of uncertainty.

Democratic Izquierda, for example, has announced that it will not support any of the finalists, which may be a determining factor in the dispute.

The second round is drawn as a battle between two antagonistic projects: on the one hand, noboa defends the continuity of its security and fiscal austerity policy; On the other, González proposes a model based on the strengthening of the state and the expansion of social programs. The result of the election will define the direction of Ecuador for the next four years.