Kalshi bans George Santos for life for manipulating bets

The online platform Kalshi has banned former Republican congressman George Santos for life because it considers that he manipulated betting contracts related to his possible presence in the State of the Union speech by the president of the United States, Donald Trump (Republican Party).

This is the first time that the company has applied a permanent ban to a user. In addition to the ban, Santos received a penalty of US$71,356 from the platform, according to the Wall Street Journal.

The case involves bets made in February 2026 on whether the former congressman would attend Trump’s speech. The CFTC (United States Commodity Futures Trading Commission) stated that Santos published misleading statements on social media about his plans while negotiating contracts related to the event.

When bad weather threatened his trip to Washington, Santos, who is the son of Brazilian immigrants, reportedly bought contracts that would pay him if he didn’t show up. At the same time, he published messages suggesting that he would be present. According to the investigation, the statements influenced contract prices and allowed him to sell his positions at a profit.

Kalshi said he concluded that Santos intended to manipulate prices. The company also stated that the former deputy did not fully cooperate with its internal investigation. He will be able to appeal the decision to the CFTC.

Santos mocked the punishment at X. “Thanks for the lifetime ban from your betting platform. Let’s see how long you guys are still around”he wrote.

In July, Santos also reached a settlement with the CFTC related to the episode. The agency ordered the return of the winnings and a civil fine of US$17,500. The total value of the settlement was over $35,000, according to the Wall Street Journal. The CFTC also banned him from trading in prediction markets for 3 years.

The former deputy’s lawyer said at the time that the agreement was made to avoid a long and expensive legal dispute and did not represent an admission of wrongdoing.

Santos was expelled from the House of Representatives in 2023. In 2024, he pleaded guilty to federal crimes of wire fraud and identity theft and was subsequently sentenced to more than 7 years in prison.

He left prison before serving his entire sentence after Trump commuted his sentence in 2025.

Kalshi also punished other politicians this Monday (31 August). Republican House candidate Laurie Buckhout, for example, was suspended for 3 years after betting less than $1,000 on her own campaign. THE CNNshe classified the decision to bet on herself as a “stupid mistake”.