With Trump’s intervention in the Ukraine War, it fails Russia’s isolation attempt

The recent direct negotiation between the United States and Russia on the war in Ukraine highlights the collapse of the western attempt to isolate the government of Vladimir Putin, according to analysis by political scientists José Victor Ferro, researcher at the Observatory of Regionalism (ODR), and Augusto Leal Rinaldi , from the Pontifical Catholic University of São Paulo (PUC-SP). In an interview with Red portalBoth pointed out that the change in American foreign policy under Donald Trump, European fragility, and Russian cunning redefined global geopolitical balance.

For Rinaldi, the first sign of this transformation “is that of interest on the part of Washington and Moscow of ending the conflict as soon as possible.” According to him, to make an agreement possible, the United States has given crucial issues, such as the territories occupied by Russia in Ukraine, the exclusion of NATO Kiev and the lack of US willingness to continue funding the war.

Direct negotiation, without the participation of the main European allies, reflects a significant change in the geopolitical panorama. According to political scientist José Victor Ferro, researcher at the Observatory of Regionalism (ODR), this new configuration “would be unthinkable ten years ago.”

European fragility in Trump’s new unipolar order

The researcher points out that, historically, the United States has always favored joint negotiations with its European allies, especially Germany, France and the United Kingdom. However, this pattern was broken, highlighting the change in American foreign policy. Ferro compares the current scenario with the 2014 negotiations, when Russia intervened in Crimea and the negotiations involved not only the US but also Germany under Angela Merkel and France, led by François Hollande. Today, this scenario is totally different, reflecting the new geopolitical pragmatism of the Trump administration.

Europe, which was already facing a difficulty in maintaining a unified response to the Russian invasion, is even more fragile without the full support of the United States. “The European Union is disunited and is unable to support the Ukrainian resistance without the participation of the United States, which weakens a forceful response to Russian claims in Eastern Europe,” says Rinaldi.

Another crucial aspect is the unilateral posture of the Trump government, which acts exclusively in accordance with US national interests, regardless of historical alliances. “The implications of this for the correlation of global strength is that Europe weakens without its greatest ally, creating breaches so that other powers explore open spaces to advance with its interests, in particular Russia and China,” says Rinaldi.

Ferro explains that American strategy has always combined “hard power” and “soft power” in a smart power concept. However, Trump has prioritized a realistic approach that gives greater weight to the military strength. “Europe is not a military power, so it has decided to negotiate as equals with who is military power, in this case Russia,” says the political scientist.

The triumphal return of Russia

This change of perspective also reflects a different view of international relations. For iron, before Trump management, the West saw Russia as a “not so reliable partner” and its regime as “autocratic and completely anti-widen.” However, Trump has sought to approach Moscow to the West as a way to counterbalance Chinese power. He recalls that the former president tried to reintegrate Russia to the G8, from which he was expelled in 2014. In addition, there is a personal relationship between Trump and Putin: “Trump thinks he is dealing with Putin, but Putin It can handle Trump’s ego well and just to make Trump do what he wants. ”

In addition, direct negotiations between Washington and Moscow show the failure of the western attempt to isolate and weaken Russia. “As far as we can see the current terms of the negotiation, the Russians are about to fulfill their desire to see Kiev outside NATO and still continue to occupy almost 20% of the Ukrainian territory,” says Rinaldi.

Iron is categorical: “NATO and Europe have failed in an attempt to isolate Russia.” According to him, the transatlantic alliance was weakened, as its main guarantee has always been the support of the United States. “Europe is no longer the preferential ally of the United States across the Atlantic,” he emphasizes. This change weakens the European position, which “for years has avoided gaining military power to focus on its policy of economic integration and promoting democratic values.” Now, without the American military guarantee, the continent is vulnerable.

Zelensky and the empty promises

Meanwhile, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky faces an increasingly adverse scenario. “Zelensky is getting weakening more and more, with more diplomatic than military support, which seems to be insufficient in a war scenario,” concludes Rinaldi.

Iron also draws attention to the impact of this new reality in Ukraine. President Volodymyr Zelensky becomes one of the greatest losers of this strategic change. During the Biden government, Kiev had reduced weapons and a strong American military funding. Now, in addition to losing this support, he faces Trump’s own rhetorical attacks, who recently called him a “dictator” by questioning his permanence in power after the end of his mandate.

Given this new context, the European Union is faced with the challenge of redefining its security and defense strategy without the unconditional guarantee of support from the United States. The failure of Russia’s isolation not only repositioned Moscow on the geopolitical board, but also highlights the new reality of a multipolar world, where the interests of regional powers challenge ancient global alliances.