
Published 04/02/2025 16:57 | Edited 05/02/2025 07:48
Donald Trump’s decision to temporarily suspend 25% trade tariffs on Canada and Mexico reflects a recurring standard in his approach to international negotiations: an initial strategy of economic aggression, followed by a tactical retreat when pressured by domestic interests and resistance from countries. affected.
A complex strategy that combines aggressive pressure, negotiation and political calculation. The measure, initially announced as a response to the entry of illegal drugs and irregular immigration, was suspended after commitments from the two neighboring countries to intensify the fight against fentanyl trafficking and reinforce border safety. However, behind this apparent diplomatic victory, there are a number of motivations and tactics that deserve further analysis, including the Chinese response in the equation.
The logic behind Trump’s commercial aggressiveness
Since his first term, Trump has adopted a protectionist stance to reconfigure US business relations. He often uses tariff threats as an instrument to reaffirm US bargain power at a time when the country faces economic and political challenges, both internally and on the international scene. Trump’s strategy is clear: he uses the threat of tariffs as a form of economic blackmail, forcing countries to negotiate under pressure.
This method has precedents. In 2018, Trump used steel and aluminum rates against the same countries to force them to renegotiate the US-México-Canada (USMCA), successor of NAFTA. However, as in the current episode, he eventually retreated after gaining concessions he could present as political victories.
The counterattack of Canada and Mexico (and China)
Canada’s response followed a logic similar to Beijing’s adopted in his trade war with Washington: reaching strategic sectors of the American economy and undermining Trump’s political base. Justin Trudeau’s government has announced sanctions aimed at products from traditionally republican states, which would generate pressure from entrepreneurs and local voters over the White House. In addition, the province of Ontario suspended a contract with Starlink, a company associated with billionaire Elon Musk, Trump’s biggest political ally.
Already Mexico, under the leadership of Claudia Sheinbaum, adopted a strategy of appeasement, promising to reinforce the border with 10,000 National Guard soldiers to contain drug trafficking. In return, Trump temporarily suspended fares and pledged to take action to curb US arms flow to Mexico, one of the Mexican government’s main concerns.
After “friendly” conversations, Canada promised to invest Canadian $ 1.3 billion in border and appoint a “tsar” to supervise the fight against fentanyl trafficking. Already Mexico pledged to send 10,000 National Guard soldiers to reinforce the border.
Trump’s retreat: strategy or pressure?
The postponement of rates for 30 days does not mean a change of Trump posture, but an attempt to turn a commercial escalation into a political asset. The Republican can now claim that his pressure tactic forced Canada and Mexico to adopt border safety measures, something he has promised in his election campaign, but knows that he will have very limited practical effects.
Suspension of rates for 30 days can be interpreted as a tactical retreat from Trump, but also as a calculated play. By temporarily giving in, the US President managed to extract significant commitments from both countries, while avoiding an immediate climbing of commercial tensions that could undermine the US economy.
However, this maneuver also reflects the growing resistance against its trade policy. In the United States, large companies and exporting sectors have already expressed concern about the impacts of tariffs, which can raise prices to US consumers and undermine the country’s competitiveness in the global scenario.
However, the retreat also reveals the limitations of Trump’s strategy. The imposition of tariffs is a two -edged knife: while pressuring other countries to give in, it can also generate inflation, reduce the competitiveness of US companies, and cause retaliation that impair US economy. The threat of tariffs had already caused concern between Canadian and Mexican entrepreneurs and politicians, and their implementation could have destabilized the highly integrated supply chains in North America.
In addition, the suspension of tariffs occurs at a time of growing instability in the financial markets. Scholarships reacted negatively to the initial announcement of tariffs, and experts warn that a prolonged trade war could feed inflation and impair US economic growth. In addition, Trump’s strategy to use tariffs as a pressure tool can have long -term consequences, such as erosion of trust between business partners and the destabilization of the free trade system in the region.
The subtlety of the Chinese answer
Unlike the former US president, who imposed 10% tariffs on all abrupt Chinese exports, with bullets lost everywhere, Beijing’s response was more sophisticated and selective. Xi Jinping chose its targets accurately, reaching strategic sectors of the United States. China announced for February 10 the imposition of a 15% rate on coal, gas and 10% on oil and agricultural equipment.
In addition, it included US brands from the fashion and biotechnology sectors in a list of companies considered unconvable. As an additional coup, Beijing opened an investigation against Google and, for February 11, plans to impose restrictions on exports of noble metal, such as Tungsten, Telúrio and Bismuto, essential for the US technology industry.
Beijing has also granted a deadline for the former US president to find a diplomatic alternative to avoid aggravation of the trade war. The White House signaled that there could be a conversation between the leaders in the coming days, which shows a space for negotiation.
Xi Jinping’s stance indicates that China does not want a trade war, because in practice it is benefiting from global trade. In 2024, the country accumulated a commercial surplus of $ 1 trillion, the largest in history for any country in the world. With a comfortable position, Beijing can dictate the terms of the game, while the United States face more serious economic challenges.
The impact of this trade war is not limited to both powers. South American and European countries are observing the dispute as an opportunity to strengthen trade with Beijing. US soybean and corn producers have already expressed concern as they see Brazil as the main beneficiary if exports to China are impaired.
Opportunities for Brazil
Although Brazil is not directly involved in the sanctions announced by Trump, the country may benefit indirectly by commercial disputes, especially in the agribusiness sector. American exporters have already expressed concern that the tariff war between Washington and Beijing can strengthen competing countries – and Brazil is at the top of this list.
The tax imposed on Chinese and Mexican products can lead to a relocation of global productive chains, making room for alternative suppliers. In the case of soy, for example, Brazil has already benefited from previous clashes between US and China, increasing its slice in the Chinese market. The same logic can be applied to other sectors such as corn, meat and manufactured.
Despite the opportunities, Brazil also faces risks if the commercial dispute expands to other sectors. Trump has already signaled, on several occasions, that he considers Brazil a country that imposes high tariffs on American products. The fear that the US expanses its tariff barriers against Brazilian exports requires careful diplomatic action by the Brazilian government.
Another point of attention is the possible global economic slowdown caused by a prolonged trade war. If Trump’s protectionism generates a recession in the US and a discouragement of global trade, Brazil may experience negative impacts on its exports, especially commodities.
In addition, Brazil’s dependence on certain markets – such as China – also needs to be managed with caution. If the US and China trade war intensifies, Beijing can seek alternative suppliers to diversify its economy and reduce vulnerability to American sanctions, which could impact the demand for Brazilian products.
To minimize risks and maximize opportunities, Brazil needs to adopt a proactive attitude in international trade. Some fundamental strategies include diversification of markets to reduce dependence on few business partners, expanding exports to Europe, Africa and other emerging markets. Advance in negotiations of business treaties with blocks such as the European Union and Asian countries, consolidating new export routes.
Active diplomacy must seek to maintain dialogue channels with the US to prevent Brazil from becoming the target of protectionist tariffs while strengthening relationships with BRICS and other multilateral groups. Brazil must reinforce its commitment to the WTO and other international institutions to prevent protectionist practices from undermining global trade as part of a multilateralism support strategy.
Risk Strategy: The pressure cycle and concession
Trump’s strategy in commercial negotiations follows a predictable standard: threats, climbing, retaliation of affected countries, and finally a strategic retreat disguised as victory. In the present case, the rates in tariffs does not mean that the trade war is over, but that Trump recognizes the political and economic risks of a prolonged confrontation.
Over the coming weeks, negotiations between US, Canada, and Mexico will define whether this temporary suspension will become a lasting agreement or if Trump will resort to its tariff pressure manual to try to consolidate its position in presidential elections.
In the long run, dependence on rates as a foreign policy tool can undermine the position of the United States in the global scenario, especially at a time when other countries, such as China, are seeking to strengthen their own trade alliances. For Trump, the challenge will be to balance your aggressive stance with the need to maintain stable and productive relationships with major US business partners. Meanwhile, the world watches attentive to the next chapters of this high -risk strategy.
Source: vermelho.org.br