USA and Russia take ahead of negotiations on Ukraine and isolate Europe

The emergency meeting convened by the president of France, Emmanuel Macron, on Monday (17), exposed the limitations of the European Union against the conflict in Ukraine. Without consensus on the sending of troops to the Ukrainian territory and having difficulty enabling a substantial increase in military spending, European countries were on the sidelines of the most decisive negotiations, which take place on Tuesday (18) in Saudi Arabia, among states United and Russia.

The Paris Meeting brought together the heads of government of Germany, the United Kingdom, Italy, Poland, Spain, the Netherlands and Denmark, as well as representatives of the European Union and the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO). However, internal disagreements prevented the formulation of a clear strategy to influence the direction of conflict.

Meanwhile, in Riyadh, US and Russian diplomats have been meeting the highest level between the two countries since the invasion of Ukraine. Conversations involve the possibility of a ceasefire, the redefinition of bilateral relations and potential flexibilities in sanctions against Moscow.

Europe divided and without consensus

The main agenda of the meeting in Paris was the possibility of sending European troops to Ukraine as a force of peace in a possible agreement. However, the idea was rejected by countries such as Germany, Poland and Spain, which consider the measure risky and uninvial at the moment. The only consensus among leaders was the increase in military spending, which would go from the level of 2% to 5% of GDP in some countries, a decision that bumps into the continent’s economic crisis.

The differences were explicit in the statements of European leaders:

• Keir Starmer (United Kingdom): “There is a generational moment for our national security.”
• Olaf Scholz (Germany): “Discussing troops is now completely premature.”
• Giorgia Meloni (Itália): “Sending soldiers looks like the most complex and less effective option.”
• Donald Tusk (Poland): “If we talk about ensuring security to Ukraine, we need to make sure we will be able to fulfill this promise.”

In addition to the lack of unity, European countries face financial difficulties to comply with new military commitments. The expansion of defense budgets depends on the flexibility of the European Union’s tax rules, which limit public deficits. However, economies such as Germany, the largest in the bloc, already face structural challenges to reconcile military spending on social demands.

The isolated position of the European Union in the geopolitical scenario reflects a larger movement. Since the beginning of the war, the bloc countries have followed the US strategy, sanctioning Moscow and supporting Kiev. However, by giving up economic ties to Russia, Europe has been dependent on an alliance that is now weakened by the new US administration.

With Trump in front of the White House, there are indications that the US will reduce its military presence in Europe, maintaining only war infrastructure at strategic points. This reconfiguration can place the block in the face of a dilemma: seek greater military and economic independence or realize with other powers, such as China, to preserve its global position.

The lack of internal unity and the exclusion of the most decisive negotiations leave Europe in a vulnerable position, while Washington and Moscow trace the new contours of global security.

Meeting in Saudi Arabia: the future of conflict without Europe

Parallel to European uncertainties, the US and Russian summit in Saudi Arabia occurs without the presence of Ukraine or European allies. The Trump government seeks to negotiate a ceasefire with Moscow, while Russia tries to reverse part of the sanctions imposed by the West.

The US delegation is led by Secretary of State Marco Rubio, National Security Counselor Mike Waltz and special envoy Steve Witkoff. On the Russian side, will participate the chancellor Sergey Lavrov and presidential advisor Yuri Ushakov.

In addition to the conflict in Ukraine, negotiations address a possible rapprochement between Washington and Moscow, with Russia showing interest in resuming business with large US oil companies and partial suspension of sanctions.

President Volodymyr Zelensky, who is in the Middle East seeking support, said he will not accept agreements made “on Ukraine without Ukraine.” Trump’s position, however, suggests that the US government can press Kiev to accept the terms discussed directly between US and Russia.

The exclusion of Europeans from the negotiations wide the loss of influence of the bloc in conflict. “If the US and Russia are negotiating directly, it is clear that Europe has no weight to interfere with the direction of the conflict,” a European diplomat said anonymous to the New York Times.

Saudi as mediators and the liberation of prisoners

Saudi Arabia takes advantage of the meeting to position itself as an international mediator, strengthening its influence on the geopolitical board. Heir Prince Mohammed Bin Salman has sought to consolidate the country as a center of diplomatic negotiations, while maintaining good relations with both sides of the conflict.

The Saudi government is interested in increasing its global influence, seeking to balance its relationship with the US and Russia to consolidate its emerging power role.

The country has already hosted peace domes earlier, but the simultaneous presence of US and Russian delegations marks a new level in its diplomatic strategy. Days before the meeting, Russia released the American Kalob Byers, arrested for drug possession, and Professor Marc Fogel, exchanged by a Russian businessman.

Analysts point out that liberation is part of Moscow’s strategy to create a favorable environment for negotiations and press Washington to relieve sanctions. For Saudi Arabia, the meeting also represents an opportunity to reinforce its relevance on other fronts, such as discussions about Gaza’s future.

With Trump pressing for a normalization of Saudis and Israeli relations, Prince Mohammed bin Salman can use his role in US and Russia mediation as a bargaining chip to influence the course of the Middle East negotiations. In addition, the holding of the meeting strengthens the Saudi position as an alternative to traditional Western diplomacy, consolidating Riyadh as a new pole of global power, capable of intermediating large -scale strategic negotiations.