Trump factor and tragedy in Vancouver can impact election in Canada

The Canadians go to the polls this Monday (28) to define the 343 members of Parliament. From the composition of the Chamber of the Common is that the new Prime Minister of the country is chosen. In the current scenario, favoritism should maintain the power of the liberals (center-left), a condition that seemed discarded, but that President Donald Trump’s stance has changed.

The vote began at 10 am (Brasília time) with the first results coming out at dawn on Tuesday (29). Although a climate of electoral tranquility is expected, the weekend in the country was marked by a tragedy: a driver advanced with the car in a crowd that participated in a festival in Vancouver, leaving 11 dead.

Some research like the YouGov They put that the liberal party can even conquer most of the parliamentary seats alone, which would disagree with its members to form a coalition with smaller parties to get votes and point out who will lead the government. However, this will not be a hindrance to liberals (if they win), given the compositions already made with left -wing left parties.

Read more: Trump impacts succession in Canada and surrounds the liberal party

If the expectation is confirmed, the current Prime Minister Mark Carney should remain in office, barring the conservative advance that was given for granted. He took over in March after a choice of party members in voting after Justin Trudeau’s resignation in January.

For the conservative party, the leader and candidate for prime minister is Pierre Poilievre. Also participating in the parliamentary election Bloc Quebécois (Quebequense Block), NDP (New Democratic Party) and the Green Party, as well as independent candidates.

Trump factor

The wear that led Justin Trudeu to the resignation happened while the research indicated a conservative turn. He had been at the post of Prime Minister since 2015, and at this time his party won three elections.

Trudeu could no longer deal with popular dissatisfaction and the departure of the government’s NDP determined the end of his passage. In recent times, Canadians have suffered from inflation, increased cost of living and the higher precariousness of public services through an austerity agenda. In this respect, the high prices charged on rents and the immigration issue were also widely explored.

His final acts have already happened in the shadow of Trump’s return to power in the US and the rate of taxation of 25% on imported products, in addition to the bravata about the attachment of the neighboring country.

When it all indicated that the liberals would be down because of these movements, the rise of Carry changed the game. With a sharp speech and counterpoint to US measures, the new Premier has managed to sell its experience in the financial market as fundamental to face the internal crisis and combat the discharges from the US.

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An example of the Carry combative posture that gained the attention of the Canadians was the retaliation of Trump’s rates. To counteract US measures the prime minister announced a 25% protectionist tariff over imported vehicles. Previously, similar posture had been announced on steel and aluminum products.

Thus, the issues that led to the fall of Trudeau were in the background, as the confrontation to Trump’s measures became the number one agenda in the country. The one who lost was Pierre Poilievre and the conservatives, more associated with Trump’s ideas in a country with a large percentage of immigrants and open to multiculturalism.

Tragedy in Vancouver

On Saturday night (26), in Vancouver, a driver advanced with the car in a crowd that participated in a festival. The run over left more than 30 victims and killed 11 people. Among the fatal victims a Brazilian: Kira Salim, 34, born in Rio de Janeiro.

The official is Kai-Ji Adam Lo, 30 years old. He is in prison and will answer for the deaths and injuries in the other victims. Initial information indicates that he has mental health problems and already had criminal records.

Due to the facts, Carney canceled campaign agendas on Sunday (27). Through social networks, he and Poilievre lamented the tragedy. Analysts point out that it is unpredictable to say whether the event on the eve of the election will impact and the power to cause some major change in the picture that was defining itself.