Netanyahu avoids fall, but wear and tear worse with crisis in recruitment in Israel

Benjamin Netanyahu survived the largest political test since the beginning of the war in Gaza. With 61 votes and 53 favorable votes, the Knesset rejected, in the early hours of Thursday (12), the motion of dissolution of the parliament presented by the opposition. By difference of just eight votes, the initiative would pave the way for early elections that, according to polls, would lead to the defeat of the current Ultra right premie.

Despite the parliamentary victory, the result opened the instability of the governing coalition, especially amid the growing dissatisfaction of ultra -portodox parties – essential pillars of the block that supports Netanyahu in power. The crisis was triggered by the pressure to resolve the issue of compulsory military service, an explosive theme in the context of prolonged genocide in Gaza.

Coalition by the brink of collapse: military enlistment

The impasse that almost led to the fall of the government revolved around the attempt to update the legislation on military recruitment. The Ultra -Orthodox parties United Judaism of Torah (JUT) and Shas, which traditionally guarantee exemptions to students of religious seminaries, threatened to break with the government if there was no formal agreement on the subject.

With the decision of the Israeli Supreme Court to oblige the enlistment of members of the Haredi community, after the expiration of a temporary arrangement in June 2024, Netanyahu was forced to act. On the eve of the vote, he articulated intensely with religious allies, offering a generic bill proposal, without legal opinion, to postpone penalties and allow a “transition period”.

Despite the lack of details, the gesture was enough for Shas and Jut to retreat, although two jut parliamentarians broke the party discipline and voted by dissolution. The opposition, led by Yair Lapid, mocked the agreement, pointing out that religious parties eventually “losing the exemption not to lose their positions.”

Genocide in Gaza presses politics and wears up Netanyahu

The Palestinian massacre in the Gaza Strip – which has already left almost 55,000 Palestinians killed, according to local authorities – has created an unsustainable conjuncture for the traditional ultraortodos exemption policy. With more than 400 dead Israeli soldiers and extended military service, the public outcry for equity in enlistment grows.

A March survey published by the conservative newspaper Israel Hayom He pointed out that 85% of Israeli Jews want changes in law, 41% favorable to the universal obligation of military service. The contrast between the war effort and the privileges of religious students feeds internal resentment, including moderate right sectors.

In addition, the prolongation of the massacre harshly impacts Israel’s international image. Netanyahu government ministers face sanctions and growing diplomatic pressures, with accusations of war crimes and global appeals for the end of the “apartheid regime.”

“Beginning of the End”: Opposition sees political erosion as irreversible

Although he guaranteed the permanence in power for now, Netanyahu faces a hostile political scenario and a volatile base. The next motion to dissolve Parliament can only be presented in six months, which in practice gives the prime minister a breath. Still, opposition leaders consider the erosion of their inevitable coalition.

“When coalitions begin to disintegrate, they disintegrate. It has started,” said Lapid. Merav Michaeli of the Labor Party was more emphatic: “It’s more urgent than ever to replace the government of Netanyahu. It is urgent to end the war in Gaza. It is urgent to heal the state of Israel.”

Backstage reading is clear: Netanyahu’s survival is increasingly dependent on opaque negotiations, unstable concessions and a parliamentary base that tolerates it more for convenience than for conviction.

A round, but not the fight

The retreat of the ultraortodos has prevented, for now, the fall of Benjamin Netanyahu. But the political cost of the crisis, coupled with the wear and tear of war and pressure on structural changes, weakens the continuity of a government that already faces popular distrust and international delegitimation.

Instead of a consolidated victory, what was seen was a postponement of the collapse. The battle for Netanyahu’s political survival continues-and the signs indicate that it will be increasingly difficult to support it.