Merz wins in Germany, far right grows and Scholz is defeated

The Democratic-Christian Union (CDU) in a block with the Social-Christian Union (CSU) won on Sunday (23) federal elections in Germany, albeit without absolute majority, starting a complex process of negotiations for the formation of the new government. The German Parliament, the Bundestag, elected 630 representatives.

The election confirmed the rise of the far right, with the alternative to Germany (AFD) folding its Bundestag bench, while the Chancellor Olaf Scholz Social Democratic Party (SPD) and their former coalition partners suffered strong defeats.

The election, anticipated after the collision of the traffic light coalition, registered a stake of 82.5% of the electorate, a significant increase of 5.9 percentage points compared to 2021, when 76.6% went to the polls.

The CDU, led by Friedrich Merz, obtained 28.6% of the votes, consolidating itself as the largest political force in the country, while AFD, driven by the East German vote, achieved 20.8%, its best result.

The electoral result represented a tough blow to the old SMPD, green and liberal (FDP) semapor coalition. Olaf Scholz’s party suffered one of its worst losses, with 16.4% of the votes and only 104 seats, a scenario that can cost the current chancellor its leadership position within the caption.

The green, which in the 2021 elections gained 14.8%, fell to 11.6%, while the FDP could not exceed the 5%barrier clause, registering only 4.3%of the votes and losing parliamentary representation.

Percentage of votes per party (in parentheses the results of 2021):
CDU/CSU: 28.6% (24.1%)
AfD: 20,8% (10,3%)
SPD: 16,4% (25,7%)
Verdes: 11,6% (14,8%)
DIE LINKE: 8.8% (4.9%)
FDP: 4,3% (11,5%)
BSW: 4,972% (N/A)

Number of seats achieved per party (in parentheses the results of 2021):
CDU/CSU: 180 (197)
AfD: 149 (83)
SPD: 103 (206)
Verdes: 73 (118)
DIE LINKE: 55 (39)
FDP: 0 (92)
BSW: 0 (N/A)

CDU wins, but must face challenges to govern
The Christian Democratic Union (CDU) and its Bavarian ally Social-Christian Union (CSU) got 179 seats in Bundestag, enough to guarantee victory, but not to rule alone.

Merz’s party now seeks to build a viable coalition, and the options on the horizon include a great coalition with the SPD, something that, for now, social democrats publicly reject, or an alliance with the green, which, although resilient, also They lost votes in this election.

Negotiations for government formation must be prolonged. Following the result of the elections, the right leader promisedu announced “at the latest” to Easter on April 20.

German press points out that an unstable government can prolong the country’s economic and political crisis, aggravating the already delicate situation of Europe’s largest economy.

Among the possibilities AVentadas, a large coalition between CDU/CSU and SPD is seen as the most likely, as it would guarantee 52.1% of the seats.

However, ideological differences can make negotiations difficult, as while CDU defends broad tax cuts, the SPD proposes tax increases for the richest and thus maintaining the welfare state.

The history of coalition governments between the two parties shows that this model has worked four times since World War II, but Merz’s turn to the right can make this arrangement more unstable.

Another possibility is the “kiwi” coalition between CDU/CSU and green, which would reach 46.5% of chairs, but without absolute majority. Although they share similar views on foreign policy, especially in supporting Ukraine, CDU and greens have significant differences on topics such as immigration, especially after Merz has approved stricter measures with support from AFD, which generated strong opposition from environmentalists.

If an alliance of two parties is not viable, the “Kenya” coalition (CDU/CSU, SPD and Green), which would guarantee a large majority of 65.6% of the seats, may emerge.

This rare model in German politics would be an alternative to avoid new elections, but would require a high degree of negotiation and concessions between the parties. Another unlikely arrangement would be the so -called “Germany” coalition (CDU/CSU, SPD and FDP), with 52.1% of the chairs. However, the tensions between SPD and FDP, which have already led to the collision of the traffic light, make this possibility difficult.

Rise of the far right and strengthening of AFD
The alternative to Germany (AFD) was consolidated as Bundestag’s second largest political force, folding its bench to 149 seats. The ultra-rightst party, which built its campaign with an anti-immigration speech, had great support in eastern Germany, where he led the vote in several states.

Despite significant growth, AFD should remain politically isolated, as the other parties have reiterated that they will not form coalitions with the subtitle. The election was also marked by the international support that AFD received, including favorable statements by billionaire Elon Musk and US Vice President Jd Vance, which generated criticism of foreign interference in the German electoral process.

The advance of AFD worries political and social sectors, since, even without composing the government, the caption will have greater influence on parliamentary debates and may guide themes such as immigration and safety more incisively.

The left restructures and returns to the game

The left party (Die Linke) surprised to reach 8.8% of the votes, bending its performance of 2021. The subtitle had faced an internal crisis in recent years, with desertions and the creation of a new competitor party, but managed to recover , driven by new young leaders and strong digital presence.

One of the campaign’s highlights was 36 -year -old deputy Heidi Reichinnek who used social networks to reach a young electorate and viralized at Tiktok by criticizing Friedrich Merz’s policies.

The digital success of the subtitle was crucial to mobilizing an audience that, until recently, seemed far from the traditional HQ -econded.

Alliance Sahra Wagenknecht (BSW), created by dissidents on the left, did not reach the 5% threshold and was without representation in Bundestag. The party, which sought to occupy a space between the traditional left and the far right, lost strength in the final stretch of the campaign, being overcome by the unexpected growth of Die Linke.

The exclusion of Parliament BSW decreases the degree of benches fragmentation and strengthens the position of the CDU in the formation of coalitions.

Electoral System and the new composition of Bundestag

The German election followed a mixed electoral system that combines district and proportional votes:

Each voter has two votes: – One for a district candidate and one for a state party list.
299 seats are filled by the district vote (majority).
-Too much are distributed proportionally, according to the votes received by the state lists of the parties.

The new Bundestag configuration will be officially confirmed by the Federal Electoral Committee on March 17, 2025, when the final result will be approved.

Economic impacts and challenges of the new government

Political uncertainty can prolong the economic crisis in Germany, which already suffers from GDP stagnation, high in energy costs and loss of industrial competitiveness. The CDU defends tax cuts for companies, but faces criticism for not presenting a clear proposal for fiscal compensation.

Another critical point is the maintenance of the debt brake, which limits the budget deficit and can restrict public investments. If CDU needs FDP to rule, the chances of making the rule more flexible will be minimal, maintaining the austerity policy and postponing structural reforms.

The German press warns that if the new coalition does not have concrete answers to the economic crisis, popular dissatisfaction can further feed the growth of the far right in the next elections.