Centro-right wins elections in Portugal with anti-immigration speech

The Democratic Alliance (AD) center-right coalition, led by the current Prime Minister Luís Montenegro, won the legislative elections of Portugal on Sunday (18), but without gaining parliamentary majority.

With 32.7% of the votes, AD obtained 89 chairs, insufficient number to form government alone in Parliament, which has 230 seats. The Socialist Party obtained 23.4% of the votes, the worst performance of the subtitle in 38 years.

The result confirmed the advance of the far right and caused an earthquake in the Portuguese party system. The arrival, led by André Ventura, reached 22.6% of the votes and tied in number of chairs with the PS, each with 58 deputies.

While Ventura celebrated the historical performance of his party, socialist leader Pedro Nuno Santos announced the renunciation of the PS.

The election had a participation rate of 64.3%, four points above the previous legislature, held in March 2024. The country went to the polls for the third time in three years, in a climate of political wear and skepticism.

The votes of the Portuguese abroad, responsible for electing four deputies – two for Europe and two for the rest of the world – are still counted – two May 28.

The new parliamentary composition consolidates the fragmentation of the Portuguese political system and opens a period of uncertainty about the formation of the next government.

Montenegro has already stated that he will not negotiate with arrival, but also does not have enough allies to guarantee legislative stability. The President of the Republic, Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa, will start consultations with the parties later this week.

PS suffers fall and arrives extremely right as a national force

The socialists were the biggest defeated in Sunday’s election, seeing their parliamentary bench shrinks from 78 to 58 chairs, with only 23.4% of the votes.

The caption lost more than 400,000 votes compared to the 2024 election and suffered harsh defeats in traditionally favorable regions, such as the south of the country. Given the result, Secretary General Pedro Nuno Santos announced his departure from the leadership of the party.

During the investigation, the arrival came to appear numerically ahead of the PS and ended the election with a draw in chairs, consolidating itself as the third force.

Ventura celebrated what he called “account adjustment with history” and stated that “nothing will follow the same in Portugal”.

The far -right party won in districts such as Algarve, Beja, Setúbal and Portalegre, all traditionally dominated by the socialists. The advance of the far right in these regions shows the displacement of a portion of the leftist electorate to the xenophobic and nationalist discourse of Ventura.

The party, founded in 2019, has capitalized social discontent and distrust in institutions, using as flags the fight against immigration, criminal hardening proposals and systematic attacks on the left.

In addition to claiming opposition leadership, arrival has rejected any secondary role in future government compositions. Unlike the previous election, Ventura did not wave to alliances with AD. His speech now aims to replace the Prime Minister himself. With 1.34 million votes, the arrival has consolidated itself as the protagonist of the new Portuguese political cycle.

Victory of the ad revalida government, but does not close crisis of instability

Despite the victory, AD will follow without a parliamentary majority and will have to negotiate agreements with other forces to make the government viable. Montenegro stated that the result represents a “vote of confidence” and required stability to rule for the next four years.

However, it does not have enough margin or to repeat the previous agreements with the liberal initiative (IL), which obtained only nine chairs.

The election was called after the fall of the Montenegro government, which lost a motion of trust in March. Even with the crisis and the attacks of the PS, the prime minister was able to expand his bench and present himself as the favorite name of the conservative electorate.

Montenegro reiterated that he will not make pacts with arrival, despite the increasing pressure of the conservative base. Without this alliance, governability will depend on understandings with sectors of the center and an opposition willing to negotiate projects of common interest – an uncertain scenario in the face of the current correlation of forces.

In recent months, the government had already been forced to approve measures imposed by the opposition, such as the elimination of tolls on the highways, with which it disagreed. The repetition of this legislative minority model tends to reproduce blockages and instability, if Montenegro does not articulate a new expanded base.

Free grows and surpasses historical parties of the left

The only progressive field caption that grew up was the free, founded by Rui Tavares. The party reached 4.2% of the votes, from four to six deputies, and became the fifth largest force of the Assembly of the Republic.

It surpassed both the Portuguese Communist Party (PCP), which maintained three chairs, and the Left Block (BE), who got only one deputy – the coordinator Mariana Mortágua.

Tavares celebrated growth, but acknowledged that the scenario is adverse. He reaffirmed that the free will remain in the opposition and seek to be a progressive alternative in the face of conservative rise.

The party has stood out for its ecosocialist platform and the defense of human rights, even being criticized by left -wing sectors by ambiguous positions in foreign policy.

In addition to the free, people-Animals-Nature (PAN) kept a chair. The surprise came from the autonomous region of Madeira: Together for the People (JPP), a local caption that had already stood out in the regional elections, elected a deputy for the National Parliament for the first time.

In the whole, the Portuguese left has reached its worst performance since redemocratization. The sum of votes for PS, BE, PCP, Free and PAN does not even reach a third of the electorate.

The historical hegemony built after the blackhead revolution is fragmented, with no clear alternative to the rising right.