France: Le Pen’s alleged favoritism after conviction should be viewed with caution, says political scientist

France will go through elections next year and, despite the temporal distance, polls of voting intentions indicate that the ultra-rightist Marine Le Pen could emerge victorious. Political scientist Florence Poznanski assesses that the French political context is full of complexities and that Emmanuel Macron’s current government has taken very conservative decisions. “There are a lot of uncertain things. Even more so considering Marine Le Pen’s situation”, he tells BdF Connectionyes Radio Brasil de Fatoalluding to the condemnation of the policy for embezzling funds from the European Union.

Poznanski assesses that, despite the research, there is a history of disputes between other positions in France. “Jean-Luc Mélenchon, who is the leader of the French left movement, almost reached the second round in 2022, in the last elections. A year before, he had very few voting intentions, 8%, 7%, he reached 20% in the end. Perhaps there is a very uncertain political scenario now in this second round, where we would perhaps have the possibility of this candidate reaching the second round and facing Marine Le Pen. This would also be a very unprecedented political scenario that I think no research election can predict at that moment”, he assesses.

In a legal sense, some recent decisions indicate that, despite being convicted, Le Pen would be free to contest elections next year. “This trial that happened now is a little curious because on the one hand it confirmed the conviction of Marine Le Pen, but not just Marine Le Pen, a dozen other political figures, but on the other hand it opened the way for her to run as a candidate. In other words, he is the condemned and she decides what she wants to do. And she entered into a move that is legitimate, in fact, for any citizen”, he argues.

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The newspaper BdF Connection airs in two editions, from Monday to Friday: the first at 12pm and the second at 5pm, on Radio Brasil de Fato98.9 FM in Greater São Paulo, with simultaneous transmission also on YouTube do Brasil de Fato.