Trump’s sanctions could hit Iran’s ability to keep ‘population functioning’, says journalist

The Donald Trump government, through the US Treasury Department, announced a series of sanctions against Tehran, threatened countries that carry out economic transactions with the Iranian government and launched a campaign for world leaders to break relations with Iran. The two countries have been in conflict since the end of February, started by the US with the assassination of the Persian country’s supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, under the argument of stopping uranium enrichment and pushing for a change in the government system.

In an interview with BdF Connectionyes Radio Brasil de Fatojournalist Flávia Gianini, a specialist in economics and international politics, reinforces that the US war against Iran is happening on two fronts: military and economic. According to the analyst, the numbers show a catastrophic scenario, with a rise in inflation that reached 66% in July and an increase in food prices by 128%.

“The currency continues to devalue, industrial production is compromised, the American naval blockade makes it even more difficult for the entry of products and generation of revenue. This means that economic pressure is beginning to affect precisely what may be most sensitive for the Iranian government, which is the ability to keep the population functioning in the midst of war”, he explains.

Gianini points out that the current scenario exposes a contradiction, since, if on the one hand sanctions can weaken the Iranian State, they can also produce an opposite political effect, which is to strengthen the nationalist discourse. “There is an important difference between putting pressure on the Iranian government and producing a change in behavior in the Iranian government”, he warns.

Since the beginning of the US attacks, the Trump administration has tried, unsuccessfully, to propagate a victory speech. Despite the attacks, so far there has been no destabilization of the Iranian government nor any action towards Iran surrendering.

Furthermore, the journalist points out that, with more pressure from the US, Iran will also respond, such as, for example, closing the Strait of Hormuz, which impacts global oil trade. “Gasoline prices in the United States are about 60% above pre-war levels, while European diesel is up 70%. In other words, the attempt [dos EUA] of strangling Iran economically is producing economic costs for everyone”, he points out.

Flávia Gianini also highlights the reaction of countries such as China, Iran’s largest trading partner, which rejected the so-called “D-Day” of US sanctions. Beijing defends a diplomatic solution.

“China is the main buyer of oil from Iran, which means that a truly effective attempt to cut off this flow would require directly putting pressure on Chinese companies, banks and refineries. This creates a strategic dilemma for Trump. How far is Washington willing to transform the war against Iran into a new front of economic confrontation with Beijing? Because then we are fighting with another type of actor, with a very different global economic weight”, he ponders.

To listen and watch

The newspaper BdF Connection airs in two editions, from Monday to Friday: the first at 12pm and the second at 5pm, on Radio Brasil de Fato98.9 FM in Greater São Paulo, with simultaneous transmission also on YouTube do Brasil de Fato.