Published 12/02/2025 14:01 | Edited 12/02/2025 14:58
Luisa González’s arrival in the second round surprised analysts and the press, who underestimated the strength of correism. In an interview with Red portalPCdoB’s political scientist and secretary of International Relations Ana Prestes, this mistaken perception was fueled by data manipulated by the United States government and the influence of the United States, who pressed the region with a Trump -led agenda. Despite challenges such as the violence and murder of Fernando Villavicencio, Correism maintains popularity due to the social achievements of Rafael Correa’s governments. (Read the full interview at the end)
Correism represents, for many Ecuadorians, a period of social advances and confrontation with imperialism. Luisa González, a candidate for the movement, is seen as a tireless and aggregating leader, capable of rescuing the values of the citizen revolution while printing her own characteristics. His profile contrasts with Daniel Noboa, who represents the oligarchic right and the interests of the US.
The unification of the left in the second round is a challenge for Luisa. Historical tensions with the indigenous community, part of which is allied with the right, make it difficult to converge. However, leaders like Leonidas Iza show the willingness to build bridges, which can result in partial unification. In addition, the democratic, though officially neutral Izquierda, tends to support Luisa, reinforcing its electoral base.
Read also: Against forecasts, Luisa González advances and will play a second round in Ecuador
Daniel Noboa bets on a public security agenda inspired by Bukele’s authoritarianism in El Salvador, promising mass incarceration and increased repressive power of the state. He also seeks to strengthen ties with the US and international financial institutions, presenting himself as the candidate capable of improving the Ecuadorian economy, highly dependent on the dollar.
Luisa’s campaign has denounced voting buying practices and the excessive use of the state machine in favor of noboa, which impairs the consolidation of the principles of the citizen revolution. These complaints reinforce the perception of irregular favoritism in the dispute.
With the second round scheduled for April 13, Ecuador is experiencing a highly polarized scenario. While Noboa bets on security and repression with US support, Luisa seeks to unite progressive forces and rescue the values of the citizen revolution. The formation of alliances and the ability of dialogue of the candidates will be determinant for the future of the country.
Read the main excerpts of the interview:
1. What do you attribute this surprise from Luisa’s arrival in the second round?
Ana Prestes: “I attribute the surprise to a wrong perception of many of us analysts – and include myself in this group – as well as the press itself. This is partly a manipulation of the data from Ecuador, promoted by the government of Noboa. This mistaken reading was contaminated by the current climate in Latin America, marked by the influence of the United States and a new agenda led by Trump, with intense pressure on countries. These factors have generated erroneous signs that have hidden that Correism, and consequently Luísa’s candidacy, remain extremely popular, despite the challenges faced in previous elections, such as the tragic wave of violence and the murder of Fernando Villa Vicenzio. ”
2. Why does the Correism still have strength, even in the face of so many defeats of other political forces in the first round?
Ana Prestes: “Correism remains popular because it symbolizes, for much of the population, the concrete benefits experienced during the previous governments of Rafael Correa. This social and anti-imperialist agenda, who faced the mega oil tankers and promoted an advanced constitutional reform, was recorded in collective memory. In addition, Correism presents itself as a victim of persecution and betrayal, especially by figures such as Lenin Moreno, which reinforces its legitimacy among voters. ”
3. How has Luisa confronted the conservative agenda of Noboa and Lasso?
Ana Prestes: “Luisa is an exceptionally tireless and very popular candidate, with great penetration in the popular sectors. She confronts the conservative agenda rescuing the values of the citizen revolution – the same project defended by Correa’s mandates – but also prints her own identity. With an easy -related profile and aggregating capacity, Luisa is well positioned to face the root and oligarchic right, strongly linked to the interests of the United States and represented by Noboa. ”
4. Do you believe that Luisa has a chance to unify the left in the second round?
Ana Prestes: “She has the ability to unify the left, but this is limited to some extent. There are tensions and frictions, especially with regard to ties with the indigenous community, which were marked by historical liabilities and disagreements. There is no blocked vote among indigenous communities, as part of them is allied even on the right. Nevertheless, leaders such as Leonidas Iza showed openness to building bridges with Luisa, suggesting that there may be partial unification, although the internal complexities of the Ecuadorian left still represent a significant challenge. ”
5. Why does the democratic Izquierda refuse support in the second round?
Ana Prestes: “Although the party announced neutrality, the candidate of Democratic Izquierda, Carlos Rabascall, declared support to Luísa. Thus, the votes of this wing tend to direct themselves in practice to Luísa González. ”
6. What does Noboa have to show in the campaign to ensure this dispute?
Ana Prestes: “Noboa has been positioned as a friend from the United States, emphasizing that he will establish a strong relationship with Trump. He bets on policies that resemble Bukele’s authoritarianism, such as the fight against violence through extreme measures – mass incarceration and a repressive posture. This approach to the US-led field, along with allies like Milei, aims to reduce the integrator potential of Latin America and nullify initiatives such as CELAC (Latin American and Caribbean States Community). In addition, he uses classic anti -communist rhetoric to suggest that Correism represents a return to a dark past. ”
7. Has public safety has been the central theme for the population, or the economy prevails?
Ana Prestes: “In fact, both themes are central. The election is divided between the issue of violence and public security and the economic challenges of Ecuador. It will not explore public safety promising a repressive state and mass incarceration, while also arguing that its good relationship with the United States, international funds and the IMF will be decisive in improving the economy of a fully dollarized country. ”
8. How has the permanence of noboa in power influenced the campaign?
Ana Prestes: “Noboa’s permanence has had a significant impact. Luisa’s campaign has denounced, for example, the use of the state machine for the purchase of votes for the benefit of the candidate – a practice that, unfortunately, is still recurring. Noboa and his team continue to explore state resources, making it difficult to build a legitimate victory for Luisa and the consolidation of the principles of the citizen revolution. ”
Source: vermelho.org.br
