Iran approves closing of the Strait of Ormuz, “artery” of Global Oil

The crisis in the Middle East reached a new level of gravity on Sunday (22), after the Parliament of Iran approves the closure of the Strait of Ormez – the sea bottleneck where about 20% of all the oil consumed in the world. The decision, still pending confirmation by the Supreme Council of National Security and the Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, is a direct retaliation for US bombings against three Iranian nuclear facilities over the weekend.

Although Iran has already threatened to close the narrow on several previous occasions, this is the first time parliament has formally approved such a measure. The gesture was read by analysts such as a high -risk geopolitical move that combines symbolic retaliation, strategic pressure and an attempt to force global negotiations, especially with Europe.

A shock in the global economy: oil in high and uncertainty in markets

The simple threat of closure was enough to cause turbulence in the energy markets. The Brent barrel jumped from $ 69.36 to $ 77.01, an increase of 11% from the beginning of the attacks. WTI, a US reference, was high similar. Analysts from institutions such as Goldman Sachs and JPMorgan warn that the price of oil can exceed $ 120 or up to $ 130 per barrel if the narrow remains blocked.

This would directly affect Europe, Asia and emerging energy -importing countries. The high fuels and the shortage of supplies could push already fragile economies on the brink of recession. Iran itself, however, would also suffer: their oil exports to China – the main destination – also depend on the Strait of Ormez.

Pressure on China and the European dilemma

China now faces western pressures to intercede with the Iranian government. US Secretary of State Marco Rubio appealed directly to China to prevent the waterway closure.

On the other hand, Europe is compelled to choose from automatic alignment to the US and Israel Belicista strategy-which bombard Iranian targets-or a more independent foreign policy, focused on diplomacy and defense of international law. The fear of a new energy crisis, such as that caused by war in Ukraine, already lights alerts in Berlin, Paris and Brussels.

Strait under risk: Strategic Geography and Naval Power

The Strait of Ormuz, with only 33 km at its narrower point, is vital to world energy safety. For it daily flow between 17 and 21 million barrels of oil and huge liquefied natural gas volumes. Saudi Arabia, United Arab Emirates, Kuwait, Iraq, Iran and Qatar use the narrow for exports – most to Asia.

The fifth US Navy Fleet, based on Bahrain, is responsible for the safety of navigation in the region. Military sources have revealed that the Pentagon discusses possible blocking answers, including deminating missions, submarine drones use, and sending naval reinforcements. Still, experts warn that a successful Iranian action, even if temporary, could paralyze traffic for weeks.

Strait Mining: Calculated risk or trap?

Iran maintains naval capacity significant, including naval mines of various types – contact, magnetic and acoustic – as well as submarines and fast attack boats. In 1988, during the war with Iraq, he already used mines against commercial and military ships. The current scenario, however, is more complex: Any Iranian offensive action in the narrow can be viewed as a US “state declaration”.

Even so, analysts such as Bob McNally of Fast of Energy warn that the market underestimate the impact of a successful Iranian action. “The idea that the US Navy would clean the narrow in a few hours is illusory. This can take weeks or months, putting sailors at constant risk,” he said.

Between calculation and despair: what do you want?

The measure approved by the Iranian Parliament serves multiple objectives: Increasing the cost of US aggression, pressuring strategic allies, and forcing the opening of diplomatic channels under its own terms. It also serves as an internal sign of strength, amid devastation caused by nuclear attacks and economic fragility.

Iran’s Foreign Minister said the country “reserves all the options to defend its sovereignty.” Analysts point out that the regime seeks to keep its deterrent to Israel and the US alive, even though you know that a total confrontation can be disastrous.

The geopolitical clock runs

The closure of the Strait of Ormuz, even if temporary, is not just a regional threat – it is a global shock. He tests the balance of power in the Persian Gulf, the political cohesion of the West, the US containment capacity and the pragmatism of China.

The final decision is now in the hands of the Supreme National Security Council and the Iranian Supreme Leader. If approved, it can mark the beginning of a new stage in the confrontation – not just military, but strategic and energetic – with deep reverberations.