This Sunday (20) the second round of the elections in Guatemala will take place – with the dispute between two names from the moderate left – and the scenario presented by the polls indicates a wide favoritism of the candidate Bernardo Arévalo, of the Seed Movement.

The last poll, published this Thursday (17/08) by the daily Free Pressshows that Arévalo has 64.9% of the voting intentions (considering valid votes), against 35.1% of his opponent, Sandra Torres, from the National Unity for Hope (UNE) party.

In another poll published this week – more precisely this Monday (14/08), by the Gallup institute –, Arévalo appears with 50% of the voting intentions, against 32% for Torres. Unlike the Prensa Libre study, the Gallup study revealed the total voting intentions, without discounting the 3% of blank and invalid votes and 15% of undecided votes.

political context

In the first round, on June 25, Torres was the most voted, with 21.1% of votes, while Arévalo was in second place, with 15.5%.

The second round scenario was considered unusual for a country like Guatemala, historically dominated by right-wing sectors.

It is important to note, however, that both Torres and Arévalo are linked to sectors of the moderate left.

The UNE candidate is a businesswoman in the textile sector and her speech is focused on promoting the country’s industrialization – and on promoting the growth of the economy and employment as a result.

For his part, the representative of the Seed Movement proposes a development project based on the “green economy” and defends a closer relationship between the country and progressive sectors in the United States and the European Union – a position similar to that of Chilean President Gabriel Boric.

It is also important to remember that Torres is contesting the second round of elections for the third time. In 2015, she lost against Jimmy Morales (65.4% against 34.6% in favor of the liberal candidate, who was elected president).

In 2019, in the dispute against the conservative Alejandro Giammattei, Torres had another defeat, by a smaller difference in votes (57.9% against 42.1% in favor of the current president).


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