Garrote Diplomacy: Trump only respects who has the strength to retaliate

For those who expected the first foreign policy and international trade initiatives of the new president of the United States to be directed against China and Russia, in theory the biggest obstacles in their way to make “Great America again”, the first measures announced For Trump they were disappointing, but they are not surprising. After all, as the former US Secretary of State already stated, Henry Kissinger, “being a enemy of the US is very dangerous, but being ally is fatal.”

From what has already happened, in these early days of government, it seems that Trump should focus his most aggressive actions at targets considered easy, without capacity to retaliate. If the country does not have a long -range missile loaded with a nuclear warhead pointed to the United States, such as China, Russia and North Korea, or is unable to infringe some severe economic loss to the United States, Trump will hardly respect him, as It has already been demonstrated in its early days of government.

If it was not Trump the president of the United States, it would not be believable that the first two countries to be punished with the imports of imports were exactly their two neighbors in North America-Mexico and Canada-countries with whom they have a free trade treaty there are decades. Historical allies, Mexico and Canada maintain a widely favorable economic and commercial relationship to the United States, as they send to Americans much of what they produce in exchange for a currency whose cost for the United States to produce is just ink and role Necessary for its impression, an exorbitant privilege from which the United States does not intend to give up, as it was patent in Trump’s threat to overlax BRICS exports by 100% if they take the idea of ​​using some alternative currency in its international trade transactions. But that is exactly what Trump did, announcing that from February 1 imports from Mexico and the United States countries, with the possible exception of oil, will be taxed by 25%.

Geopolitical problems are not lacking for Trump to worry about: the war in Ukraine, where Russia and the United States are on opposite sides; The brutal operation of Israel in the Gaza Strip, the risk of a new theocratic government in Syria, the Civil War in Sudan, the loss of the United States from the condition of Absolute Lord of the Pacific Circle and East Asia, Russia’s attempt From resuming part of the global influence it had before the fall of the Soviet Union, the challenge of so -called global south to global governance institutions dominated by the United States and the dollar and thereafter. But Trump decided to go over Panama, threatening to resume control of the channel that was returned to the country in the 1970s, as if it were making some significant difference to the US economy.

The insistence on buying Greenland or even taking it by the force of the Kingdom of Denmark, a NATO member and the United States ally, is another example of the new US foreign policy under the Trump government. The brutal way Trump responded to Colombia’s attempt not to receive US airplanes carrying deported immigrants submitted to degrading conditions by the Colombian government repeats the same pattern of conduct: go with everything on those who have no capacity to retaliate.

Such a pattern of behavior is particularly worrying for Latin America. Trump is rehearsing the return to Monroe doctrine. Its statement that Greenland’s annexation is an absolute necessity of the United States – “people really don’t even know if Denmark has any legal right to it, but if it has, it must give up because we need it for national security.” – It can be applied to any part of Latin America, including the Amazon.

The interest of the United States in the region holding the largest mineral frontier in the world, the largest biodiversity reserve and water resources, was evident in President Biden’s recent visit to Manaus and former treasure secretary Janete Yelen to Belém. Yelen showed interest In providing rare land to the US industry and offered “support” intelligence and security services to countries in the region.

It is important to note that the new Secretary of State of the United States, a position equivalent to the Minister of Foreign Affairs, is Marco Antonio Rubio, a Cuban-American politician and lawyer member of the Republican Party who held the position of senator by Florida from January 2011 until January of 2025. Unlike other secretaries of state who had scarce interest in Latin America, the current secretary fluently speaks the Spanish and has always been linked to topics involving the US relationships with the countries of the region. Your first trip abroad as Secretary of State will be to Central America. It is very likely, therefore, that Latin America becomes an important target of Trump’s foreign policy, especially because the issue of illegal immigration, so far central point in its internal agenda, is a problem that is largely connected to Latin America. Another factor that should weigh in this focus of focus to Latin America is the increase in cooperation between China and the countries of the region.