Ecuador defines president on Sunday in a fierce election between Noboa and Luisa González

Five days from the second presidential round in Ecuador, candidates Daniel Noboa (National Democratic Action) and Luisa González (Citizen Revolution) intensify their agendas in the midst of a scenario of uncertainty and strong polarization. The elections take place on Sunday (13) and more than 13.7 million voters are summoned to the polls.

The most recent surveys show a technical draw between the two postulants. The consultant communicates points Noboa with 41.5% and González with 41.1%. Already the Instituto Informa Confidential assigns 45% to the current president and 41.3% to the correist candidate. In both cases, the number of null, white or undecided votes ranges from 13% to 17%, which reinforces the unpredictability of the dispute.

The first lap, held on February 9, ended with a difference of less than 1 percentage point: Noboa had 44.4% of the valid votes against 43.9% of González. The tendency of instability in the polls also manifested in the first round, when institutes indicated the victory of the current president in the first round – a scenario that did not materialize.

Race marked by attacks and complaints

In the final stretch, the campaign is marked by direct attacks and disinformation spread. President Noboa intensified criticism of the opponent and sought to associate it with drug trafficking and the government of Venezuela, in a recurring rhetoric of the regional right.

In publications on Rede X, Noboa stated that Luisa González and the “Maduro regime prefer drug traffickers as allies.” The statements arise amid controversial presence in the country of Erik Prince, former military man and founder of the private security company Blackwater, involved in human rights violations during the Iraq war. Prince was recently in joint operations with Ecuadorian military.

Luisa González reacted to statements by stating that the presence of Prince “belites the Armed Forces of Ecuador.” The candidate was also the target of a complaint for alleged gender political violence during the March 23 debate. The Electoral Litigation Court has requested additional documentation for the prosecution to advance, and the case is still under analysis.

Expectation of the left and international reactions

Luisa González’s candidacy, supported by former President Rafael Correa, tries to replace the left in power after seven years. Last week, he received the formal support of the Pachakutik indigenous movement, represented by Leonidas Iza, who won half a million votes in the first round. According to Iza, the support “is not a blank check”, but it represents an effort to block the authoritarian and neoliberal advance of the current government.

Ecuador crosses a deep crisis, with increased violence, energy crisis, unemployment and allegations of abuses committed during public safety militarization. Noboa, who took over the government in 2023 after the resignation of Guillermo Lasso, tries to renew his term by 2029. His proposal includes constitutional reforms and expansion of military presence in urban areas.

International bodies, such as the OAS, will accompany the vote. In the first round, the head of the entity’s mission, Heraldo Muñoz, announced that he will include in his report allegations of imbalance in the claim due to the permanence of noboa in office during the campaign – in disagreement with the Ecuadorian constitution, which requires removal for reelection.

The first results are expected to be released by the National Electoral Council from 6 pm (local time) Sunday. If the dispute remains tight, the CNE said it could wait for the full investigation before announcing a trend.