Survation survey indicates that the party is expected to surpass the historic mark of seats in Parliament, with 484 seats

The UK Labour Party, led by Keir Starmer, is expected to have a “historic victory” in the elections scheduled for Thursday (4 July 2024), according to a survey by Survation. The estimate is that the party will secure 484 of the 650 seats in Parliament. If confirmed, it will surpass the record of 418 seats, won when Tony Blair led the party, in 1997.

In contrast, the Conservatives, led by Prime Minister Rishi Sunak and who have been in power for 14 years, are expected to obtain only 64 seats. This would be the lowest number since their founding in 1834. The information is from Reuters.

In addition, the right-wing Reform UK is projected to win 7 seats.

Here is the seat estimate by party:

  • Labour Party: 484 of 650 seats;
  • Conservatives: 64 seats;
  • Liberal Democrats: 61 seats;
  • Scottish National Party: 10 seats;
  • Reform UK: 7 seats;
  • Plaid Cymru Party of Wales: 3 seats.
  • Green Party of England and Wales: 3 seats.

Survation used the MRP (Multilevel Regression and Post-stratification) technique to reach these conclusions, a methodology that estimates public opinion at the local level from large national samples. There were 34,558 interviews conducted online by telephone. Click here to read the technical notes of the survey.

Labour’s lead signals that Starmer’s election campaign, which has seen him meet voters across the country, appears to have been well-received by Britons. He is the front-runner to replace Sunak as head of parliament.


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