Preliminary results point conservative victory in Germany

The early elections for the new members of Parliament (Bundestag) took place on Sunday (23). Initial projections from the counting of votes that began with the closing of the ballot box at 6 pm local time (14 hours of Brasilia) show that the Christian Democratic Union (CDU), added to the Christian Social Union (CSU), will be the most subtitle Voted with about 28.6% of the votes.

This situation should lead CDU leader Friedrich Merz to hold the position of Chancellor to replace the social democrat Olaf Scholz.

But for Merz to take over the post he should hold rings, since CDU/CSU did not add up to most of the 630 Bundestag chairs. Until a coalition of forces define who will be the chancellor – even if everything indicates that it will be Merz – Scholz will be as interim.

There is a barrier clause where parties need to exceed 5% of the votes to be able to form countertops in Parliament, or elect three deputies by direct vote. Thus, we must wait to see how many parties have managed to have limbs to form bench, which will demonstrate the degree of difficulty to form the unit.

Read more: Germany near a “perfect storm”

Second place will be with the far right by the alternative to Germany (AFD), with projections of 20.4% of the votes. The party that brings together fascist paintings almost doubled its 2021 vote, taking advantage of the unpopularity of the current chancellor and radicalizing the speech against immigrants. Figures like Elon Musk and the vice president of the United States, JD Vance demonstrated public support to the party that houses neo-Nazis.

Although it is the second force, the party should be isolated. The other traditional parties indicated not wanting to negotiate with AFD. You have to wait to see if conservatives will maintain firm posture against them if they need the far -right congressmen.

Already the Social Democratic Party of Germany (SPD), of the current chancellor who has wide disapproval, should be 16.3% of the votes. The value is considered tiny and the worst of subtitle over a century, as the headlines of German newspapers highlight. With this result the bench will still be the third largest.

The lack of Scholz’s robust response to the adverse economic scenario with difficulties imposed by the international agenda and the advance of the far right with an anti-immigration populist discourse made the chancellor have a great disapproval and bring his party to defeat, Being considered the shorter chancellor since reunification in 1990 – less than four years in power.

In turn, the green, follow with 12.3% of the votes and the left (Die Linke), with 8.5%. Although they have less representation may still be the balance of the scale in the definition of the chancellor. Die Linke’s result is surprising, and in the 2021 election they had 4.9% of the votes and only did not stop at the barrier for the minimum direct election of three chairs in Bundestag.

The Democratic Liberal Party, which triggered the early elections when leaving the Scholz government, is still awaiting the results to know if it surpassed the 5%barrier, as well as alliance leftists Sahra Wagenknecht (BSW). They can circumvent the clause, as did Die Linke in the previous election, with the election of three deputies by direct vote if they are below the minimum established.

The official result should be announced in the early hours of Monday (24). The text numbers were updated at 5 pm on Sunday.

*With information from international agencies