Marcelo Tognozzi | Trump is a survivor

To date, 4 US presidents have been assassinated: Abraham Lincoln (1809-1865), James Garfield (1831-1881), William McKinley (1843-1901) and John Kennedy (1917-1963). McKinley and Kennedy were campaigning for re-election. 9 other presidents have survived assassination attempts, most of them by gunshot, the most recent being Jimmy Carter (1979) and Ronald Reagan (1981), whose lung was punctured.

The system in the United States is brutal. Hatred has always been extreme. Many wars and much violence have marked the trajectory of politicians. Since the mid-2010s, polarization and hatred have become much more intense, whether due to the action of a left with an agenda woke in defense of minorities and immigrants, or due to the reaction of the Republican right represented by Trump, whose agenda is diametrically opposed.

Trump has demonstrated enviable resilience. He has been accused of committing crimes and encouraging attacks on democracy, such as the invasion of the Capitol. At his trial, in which he was accused of bribing a porn actress so that her affair with him would not be revealed, the American and world media massacred Trump as they have never done with an American politician. Not even Richard Nixon (1913-1994), with the whole Watergate, was attacked so much. The Supreme Court gave him relief, in its decision to spare him from the law fare practiced against him.

Joe Biden’s inability to be competitive has fueled the growing hatred. The result was the shooting this Saturday (July 13, 2023), in which Trump narrowly escaped death. The shot hit his ear, he felt it and instinctively threw himself to the ground. He walked away from the stage, cheered by the crowd. The man who shot him was killed.

It is inevitable to compare this attack with the one suffered in 2018 by then-candidate Jair Bolsonaro. The fundamental difference is that, 6 years ago, the global right was not as well-organized as it is now, as we saw at the meeting in Balneário Camboriú (SC), last week, promoted by the CPAC (Conservative Political Action Conference). The reaction will be strong.

Trump has the merit of having taken the first step towards the emergence of a new and better organized global right wing, which had been pushed out of the spotlight by the left and center-left that emerged after the fall of the Berlin Wall. The attack against him is not limited to American politics, but must be analyzed in a global context. See, for example, the acts of violence promoted in France after the July 7 election.

Saturday’s attack indicates where the escalation of violence in American politics could lead, the temperature of which has been rising since the death of George Floyd, a black man killed by police in May 2020, when Trump and Biden were beginning their race for the White House. Everything that has come since is linked and will not stop there.

The consequences will be dire. Trump will not let this go unnoticed and will demand a thorough investigation by the Secret Service, which failed after one shooter was killed, as well as one Trump supporter. He will globalize this attack, showing that all right-wing leaders are at equal risk, whether in Europe, Brazil or other South American countries. He recently told Brazilian politicians that, if elected, he would treat the Brazilian case as a personal matter when referring to the persecution of Bolsonaro’s supporters by the Judiciary authorities.

Lula posted a statement condemning the attack on social media. Gustavo Petro from Colombia had not commented until 10:30 p.m. Other opponents of Trump in world politics also remained silent, such as the Spaniard Pedro Sanchez and the Frenchman Emmanuel Macron. British Prime Minister Keir Starmer, a former Trotskyist, published a harsh statement on X condemning the violence, saying that “all society” is a victim of this type of attack.

From now on, Donald Trump, the resilient one, is a survivor. Just like Reagan, who was shot on March 30, 1981, in the first year of his term, the shot to the ear will change the course of history and the campaign. Reagan returned from the hospital to the White House on April 11 with a greater appetite for power than ever. That is exactly what will happen with Trump. From now on, the campaign will be on fire. Literally.

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