Published 03/10/2026 14:33 | Edited 03/11/2026 10:19
This Tuesday (10), the war scenario in the Middle East presents new contours of uncertainty. While US Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth announced today a “more intense” offensive of attacks — the largest since the end of February — the messages coming from the White House reveal contradictions.
To contain instability in the oil market, President Donald Trump stated on Monday (9) that the operations would be “practically completed” and “ahead of schedule”, claiming the destruction of 90% of Iran’s missile capacity. However, the same Trump threatened an attack “20 times stronger” if Tehran blocks the Strait of Hormuz. This oscillation between the declaration of victory and the rhetoric of “fire and fury” reflects, according to analysts, internal differences in the administration and a difficulty in defining the final objective of the intervention.
The “Netanyahu Factor” in the war
The analysis of Iranian resilience gains depth with the interview of Alastair Crooke —former British diplomat, former MI6 intelligence agent and founder of Conflicts Forum in Beirut. In an interview with journalist Chris Hedges, republished by the portal Other WordsCrooke describes the conflict as a political imposition of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu on Trump.
According to the expert, Netanyahu used the pretext of the “nuclear threat” to convince Washington to confront, although the real objective was the destruction of Iran’s conventional and modern missile arsenalwhich nullifies Israeli air supremacy. Washington adopted the “decapitation doctrine”, similar to the model tried in Venezuela, betting that the death of the leaders would provoke an immediate popular uprising. The plan, however, underestimated the national cohesion and decentralized structure of the Iranian state.
The “exhaustion” strategy and the technological vacuum
Iran demonstrates decades-long preparation for a war of resistance. Crooke explains that Tehran did not expose its elite technology right away. Instead, he used missiles and drones dating from the 2010s to saturate Israeli and US defenses. “The old missiles were fired precisely to exhaust the ability to try to shoot them down”, reveals the former diplomat.
While the Pentagon spends billions on expensive interceptors against obsolete “decoys”, Iran preserves its cutting-edge missiles, such as hypersonic missiles. Khorramshahr-4 (Mach 14)whose interceptions are technically almost impossible. Furthermore, Iran has focused on the systematic destruction of advanced US radars, creating a technological “blindness” in the Persian Gulf that compromises Western superiority. The Revolutionary Guard claimed the destruction of ten advanced US radars, including sophisticated and expensive systems.
Deterrence and Regional Impacts
Major General Ali Mohammad Naeini said Iranian forces were awaiting the US naval fleet, including the aircraft carrier Gerald Ford, in the Strait of Hormuz, warning that the end of the conflict “is in Iran’s hands”.
Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi rejected negotiations, calling Tehran’s actions “legal self-defense” and criticizing the American “epic mistake” that sent oil prices soaring. And he warned that the persistence of the attacks will result in the total blockage of oil exports from the region.
Regional impacts and profound transformations
The consequences of the conflict already go beyond its immediate borders. On Monday (9), missile shrapnel caused injuries in Israel and one death in Bahrain. Regional leaders, such as Egyptian President Abdel-Fattah al-Sisi, express grave concern about the geopolitical chaos.
For Crooke, the economic impact will be permanent, with the flight of capital from the Gulf towards Asia and the end of the region’s status as a safe haven for tourism and technology. While Israel faces deep internal divisions accentuated by the war, for Iran, the survival of the regime and basic military infrastructure is already read as a symbolic victory against an adversary historically considered invulnerable.
Source: vermelho.org.br
