China can assume mediation between Iran and Israel after climbing the conflict

The Israeli air strike to Iran on Friday (13) lit the warning of a possible regional war. Faced with the severity of the crisis, China presented itself as an alternative voice to the United States and offered media the tensions between the two historical enemies. Over the weekend, Chinese Chancellor Wang Yi spoke by telephone with his Iranian and Israeli counterparts, condemned Israel’s action and stated that Beijing is ready to “play a constructive role” in the search for a peaceful solution.

“China explicitly condemns Israel’s violation of Iran’s sovereignty, security, and territorial integrity,” Wang Yi told Iranian Foreign Minister Seyed Abbas Araye on Saturday (14). Beijing’s position marks a contrast with his neutrality in other international crises, such as the war in Ukraine, and highlights the growing geopolitical dispute with the US, plunged into internal crises and commercial allies.

A new dispute of diplomatic protagonism

Israel’s offensive – which reached Iranian military and nuclear complexes – was justified by Premier Benjamin Netanyahu as an attempt to “reverse an existential threat,” although Iran has not signaled any attack so far. From Israeli “preventive” aggression, the two countries have exchanged attacks, increasing the number of victims and the risk of a broader regional conflict.

In this scenario, China seeks to position itself as a mediator, betting on its growing economic and diplomatic presence in the Middle East. “China urges countries that influence Israel to make concrete efforts to restore peace,” said Wang. In conversation with Israeli minister Gideon Sa’ar, Wang asked the parties to “solve their differences through dialogue.”

Complex relationships with both sides

Beijing maintains strategic bonds with both Iran and Israel. Since 2021, she has had a 25 -year cooperation agreement with Tehran, including Chinese investments of $ 400 billion in infrastructure in exchange for Iranian oil. It has also systematically opposed to US sanctions against Iran.

On the other hand, Israel and China collaborate in sectors such as defense and technology, with a history of partnerships in the development of aircraft and missiles. Nevertheless, the bonds between Washington and Tel Aviv are incomparably narrower than Beijing’s with Tehran or Jerusalem.

According to analysts stated in international agencies, China’s influence on Iran is real but limited, and it will hardly be decisive without US direct involvement – still considered the leading regional security actor. Even so, the attempt at mediation reinforces the Chinese narrative of offering an “more balanced” international order, especially in front of Global South countries, critics of the Israeli offensive in Gaza and its climbing against Iran.

Rivalry with the US and dispute for international legitimacy

China accuses Washington of being a “source of instability” in the Middle East and adopting double patterns regarding sovereignty and security. In his most striking speech so far, Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman Lin Jian said on Friday (13) that “China opposes any violation of Iran’s sovereignty, security and territorial integrity” and warned of the risk of climbing.

Asked about a possible Iranian retaliation with the closing of the Strategic Strait of Ormuz-where a quarter of world oil passes-Lin refused to comment on hypothetical scenarios. The Asian country, the largest buyer of Iranian oil, has strong interest in the region’s stability.

Between peace and geopolitics

Beijing has already had an unexpected success in mediation between Iran and Saudi Arabia in 2023, which strengthened his intention to act as a global diplomatic power. Now it tries to repeat the formula between Tehran and Tel Aviv. But the complexity of the conflict and the western ties with Israel make the challenge much greater.

In the US, President Donald Trump said on Sunday (16) he was “working to appease the conflict” and even suggested the possibility of Russian President Vladimir Putin to act as a mediator. “I would be open to this. He is ready,” said the Republican, signaling a rapprochement with Moscow, who also condemned the Israeli attack.

Even with its still uncertain role, the Chinese initiative reinforces a new international dynamics: in a multipolar world, more powers seek to dispute the direction of global diplomacy – and peace, when possible, also becomes terrain of strategic dispute.