Bolivia: Left suffers historical defeat and is out of the second round

For the first time in almost two decades, Bolivia will not be governed by a candidate for the movement to socialism (but). This Sunday’s elections (17) confirmed the party’s electoral defeat by endangering the social advances made in the period. According to the Supreme Electoral Court (TSE), two directist candidates will compete in the second round.

The senator Rodrigo Paz Pereiraof the Christian Democratic Party (PDC), obtained 32% of votes and advanced first. He will face the former president Jorge “Tuto” Quirogafrom the Free Alliance (DNA), who won 27% and got the second vacancy.

Also from the right, businessman Samuel Doria Medina totaled 20%, followed by Andronics Rodríguez (MAS), president of the Senate, who reached only 8.1%.

The 2009 Constitution instituted the second round mechanism, which had never been necessary, as the MAS always won in the first round with Evo Morales or Luis Arce.

This time, the picture changed radically: the left was divided and weakened, while the right benefited from the progressive fragmentation and the economic crisis that pressures the country.

The TSE announced that the full report of the results, including the composition of Parliament, should be released in the coming days, due to manual processing of minutes. Until then, the country continues to debate the impacts of an election that redefines its political course.

Luis Arce reinforces the legitimacy of the process and asks for peace

President Luis Arce, who did not compete, congratulated the population for their participation and stated that his government guaranteed a peaceful and transparent process, even in the face of pressures.

He pointed out that there was “internal and external attacks” to sabotage the election, but stressed that the administration’s effort was decisive to ensure democratic law to the vote.

“We made every effort to ensure this process. We fulfilled it!” He said. “We are confident that in the second round our people will reaffirm once again that Bolivians solve our problems peacefully.”

Arce took the opportunity to mark the symbolic importance of the vote amid the Bicentennial Bolivian Independence: “Democracy has won! Live Bolivia in its bicentennial! Live our democracy!”

Not to mention directly the candidates who passed the second round, the speech sought to reaffirm the legitimacy of the electoral process in a context of polarization and uncertainty about the country’s future. The message also represented an attempt to preserve the state’s institutional image in the face of his party’s defeat.

Internal division and null vote explain the defeat

For analyst Hugo Moldiz, heard by Telesurthe defeat of the left is directly linked to the rupture of the MAS and the null voting strategy defended by Evo Morales. He held responsible for encouraging an option that eventually favored opponents.

“One of the greatest responsible for his position with the null vote, which ended up benefiting everyone less to the left, was encouraged by the former president,” he said.

Moldiz stressed that the fragmentation of unions and social movements also contributed to the result, by breaking the historical alliance between the MA and the popular base. “The social fragmentation of unions, movements and the division of the but practically determined the result we observed,” he explained.

In the analyst’s assessment, the Bolivian left needs to perform a deep self -criticism to understand the structural factors that led to the decline.

“Left forces and the popular field should seriously reflect on structural causes, not on the apparent,” he said. “It is necessary to explore the structural causes to learn the lessons and start over from scratch,” he added.

According to Moldiz, the popular field rejected proposals associated with the neoliberal era of 1985-2005, marked by privatization and submission to the United States. However, the lack of progressive unity prevented that this rejection from translated into enough votes to the left, leaving the space free for the right to occupy the first and second place.

Rodrigo Paz emerges as a favorite

Senator Rodrigo Paz Pereira, son of former President Jaime Paz Zamora, consolidated himself as the main force in the first round. In a speech before supporters in La Paz, he thanked the votes, but asked for caution:

“We have not gained anything yet, we have the right to play a final that defines itself in two months. Nothing is gained until it gets, until there is the signature of victory.”

According to analyzes, Peace built his political image with “constructive” criticism of the Senate government and expanded his legitimacy by participating in the presidential call to ensure electoral transparency, which his right -wing rivals refused to take part.

Hugo Moldiz estimates that, in eventual government, Peace can assume a bonapartist profile, giving in to the pressures of the bourgeoisie, but maintaining precarious bonds with social movements. He also warned that there is a risk that the new agent abandon the Alba and reorient Bolivian foreign policy, approaching the United States to the detriment of the articulation with the BRICS.

Quiroga bets on economic stability

Former President Jorge “Tuto” Quiroga celebrated the classification in the second round and congratulated his rival. “Today it won democracy,” he said in a conciliatory tone. He thanked not only his voters, but also to citizens who chose other candidates in an attempt to expand their reach.

Quiroga presented as the main challenge, if returning to the presidency, the stabilization of the economy, now pressured by high inflation and tax difficulties. In a nod to the center and left, he dismissed revanchism: “I will not give impunity, but I will not arrive with revenge.”

Despite his moderation rhetoric, Quiroga is identified with conservative policies and has already defended measures similar to those of Argentine Javier Milei, including drastic cuts in public spending. Its presence in the second round consolidates the shift to the right of the Bolivian political process.

The contrast between peace and chiroga is less in ideology and more in style: while the senator tries to present himself as a renewal and conciliator, the former president bets on his experience to lead a conservative turn. Both, however, represent the rupture with the progressive cycle started almost two decades ago.

Challenges on the left before the new scenario

The exclusion of the left of the second round opens a period of uncertainty about the future of the project started in 2006. MAS, marked by the division between Evo Morales and Luis Arce, was unable to present a viable candidacy.

Morales’s option for null vote has contributed to the weakening of the progressive field and is seen as a decisive factor in defeat.

For popular sectors and analysts, the immediate task of the left is to perform a critical reflection on the causes of the crisis. The balance includes not only the 2025 electoral errors, but also the voltages accumulated between the government and social movements, the dependence on natural resources exports and the difficulty in renewing leadership.

But the historical defeat of the but also signals a change in regional geopolitics. If the victory of Rodrigo Paz or Jorge Quiroga is confirmed, Bolivia will be able to reconfigure its foreign policy, reducing the weight of alliances such as Alba and approaching the United States and business sectors that press the full opening of the lithium market.

Meanwhile, the coming weeks will be decisive for the reorganization of the progressive field and the definition of strategies that avoid social setbacks in the face of the conservative turn. As Hugo Moldiz warned, it will be necessary “start over zero”To rebuild popular unity and prepare a new resistance cycle.