Published 17/08/2025 10:54
Nearly eight million Bolivians are called on the polls on Sunday (17) to choose president, vice president, 130 deputies, 36 senators and nine supranational representatives.
The Electoral Supreme Court (TSE) has guaranteed that the process is ready and that 80% of preliminary results should be released later tonight, while the official result will be confirmed within seven days.
According to the Court, these are the most observed elections in the country’s history, with the presence of 3,500 inspectors from 19 national and international organizations.
The election is considered the most risky to the left since 2006, when Evo Morales came to power for the first time. After nearly two decades of hegemony of the movement to socialism (but), the research points as favorites the candidates of the right right Samuel Doria Medina, from Alianza Unidad, and Jorge “Tuto” Quiroga of Alianza Libre, who can lead the dispute to an unprecedented second shift.
The Bolivian system allows first round victory only in case of absolute majority or at least 40% of the votes with a 10 -point advantage over second place.
But it arrives weakened by internal divisions and the economic crisis. Former President Evo Morales was judicially prevented from running and came to convene his supporters to the null vote, while the current agent Luis Arce was expelled from the acronym and gave up running for reelection.
The party launched Eduardo del Castillo as a candidate, but he appears less than 1.5% in the polls, while Andronics Rodríguez, president of the Senate, figures about 5%.
This scenario paves the way to the right, which attempts to capitalize on the wear and tear of the left after years of internal disputes and the impact of inflation, today 25% per year.
Analysts warn that if the defeat of MAS has been confirmed, the social advances have won in the last 20 years – such as the reduction of extreme poverty from 38.2% to 11.2% and the expansion of access to basic rights – may suffer setbacks.
Division of the left and economic crisis mark the scenario of the claim
The division no but was accentuated since 2023, when Evo Morales accused Luis Arce supporters of “traitors” in a congress held at his stronghold in Cochabamba.
The party expelled Arce, and the relationship between the two leading leaders on the left Bolivian has become a constant exchange of public attacks. Morales tried to create a new party, but was barred by the Electoral Court, which confirmed the decision of the Constitutional Court to limit to two terms the occupation of the position of president and vice.
Without Evo and with Arce away, Andronics Rodríguez tried to put himself as a conciliator, but could not gather the militancy around his candidacy.
But it insisted with Del Castillo, while Evo began to defend the null vote, which weakened even more to the left.
In addition to the political crisis, the economy is going through turmoil. Inflation reached 25% in 2025, pressured by increasing logistics costs and dependence on fuel imports, which totaled US $ 3 billion in spending last year.
Arce recognized the difficulties, but stressed that his management maintained democracy and announced the inauguration of the El Alto biodiesel plant in September, seen as an alternative to reduce external dependence.
Wear contrasts with the history of stability of the management of MAS, which for 15 years controlled inflation, kept fixed exchange rates in 6.96 Bolivians per dollar and nationalized strategic sectors such as oil, gas and minerals.
These factors were central to the reduction of poverty and the strengthening of social policies, but today they cannot shield the government in the face of popular discontent.
Arce charges transparency and reacts to foreign interference
On the eve of the election, Luis Arce defended in an interview with the Argentino newspaper The nation that the government’s priority is to guarantee transparent elections. “Let it get the right, but do so correctly,” he said, accusing the opposition of manipulating research since 2022.
The president insisted that the right never exceeded 30% of the Bolivian electorate and recalled that his victory in 2020 reached 55% of the votes.
Arce highlighted as his main legacy of the preservation of democracy after the 2019 coup and the violent protests in Santa Cruz.
“Many didn’t think we were going to the elections, but we succeeded. The best legacy we are letting is show that one can make a democratic transition,” he said.
The head of state also defended the popular base of the but as a strength of resistance to the offensive of the opposition.
About the economic plan, Arce admitted the problems generated by dependence on imported fuels, but said Bolivia needs to advance in the industrialization of its natural resources.
It has announced that the El Alto biodiesel plan, scheduled for September, will reduce part of imports and mark a new stage for the energy sector.
The president also took the opportunity to counter external criticism. He accused Javier Milei of interference with commenting on the Bolivian economy and criticized Argentina’s Minister of Security, Patricia Bullrich, who alleged the presence of Iranian forces in the country. “Let us show us. He never demonstrated it,” he said. The reaction exposes how the Bolivian electoral dispute is also marked by the diplomatic tension with regional neighbors.
Lithium and the future of the Uyuni Salar in the center of the election
Among the topics that most polarize debate is the future of lithium, a strategic resource for world energy transition. THE Salar also sleepthe largest lithium reserve on the planet and iconic tourist destination, is at risk of irreversible degradation if intensive exploration.
The subject became central to Samuel Doria Medina’s campaign, which promises to open the sector to foreign investments, review contracts with Russians and Chinese and pass a new mining law in 2026.
Medina directly attacks the MAS, accusing the party to use lithium as “political lever.” The candidate states that if elected he will sue those responsible for the contract under analysis with Russian state Uranium One and questions the $ 1 billion agreement signed with Chinese consortium CBC.
He also approached entrepreneurs such as Pan American Energy’s Marcelo Claure and Marcos Bulgheroni, raising suspicions about the formation of a business consortium to explore the Bolivian resource.
Former President Evo Morales and popular sectors report that this model threatens to deliver national sovereignty and destroy Salar.
Studies by Bolivian and Chilean universities, supported by NGOs, point out that open -air exploration threatens water resources, indigenous communities, and tourist activity that supports thousands of families.
The populations Aimás and Quechuas, which live from salt and cultural tourism, already report the impact of the removal of millions of liters of groundwater.
According to Bolivian economist Martin Moreira, the risk is the delivery of an incalculable equity in exchange for immediate profits. He estimates that Salar is worth $ 66 billion only in raw materials, but a speculated model on the market could deliver the 21 million tons of reserves in exchange for only $ 10 billion.
The warning is that, without prior consultation with communities and without environmental protection, the global energy transition can reproduce a predatory extractive model in Bolivia.
Strengthened right in the midst of electoral distrust
In addition to Samuel Doria Medina and Jorge “Tuto” Quiroga, there are other names from the right, such as former military manfred Reyes Villa, Rodrigo Paz Pereira, Jhonny Fernández and Pavel Aracena Vargas.
Although the opposition is also fragmented, the current advantage in research puts the right as a favorite to win the election or bring the dispute to a second unpublished round in Bolivian history.
The environment, however, is of suspicion. Hours before the opening of the ballot box, Alianza Unidad denounced the existence of an alleged “manipulated plan” to link its party to an electoral fraud.
The government immediately reacted in a statement, classifying the accusation as “irresponsible” and part of the “dirty war between right parties.” The executive called for the political forces responsibility and defended the transparency of the TSE, which ensures that it is fully fulfilling the schedule.
Amid tensions, Bolivia defines today will continue the cycle started in 2006 with Evo Morales or the way for a right -wing government will be paved after nearly two decades of progressive hegemony. More than choosing their next president, Bolivians decide the fate of their strategic resources and the course of a political project that has been a regional reference in the last two decades.
Source: vermelho.org.br
