Attack on Trump could strengthen his candidacy in polarized environment

Even though it is still early and there is a lack of elements to fully understand everything that happened, it is a fact that the attack against the former president of the United States, Donald Trump, this Saturday (13), has the potential to change the course of the electoral dispute, both due to its severity and its consequences.

While attending a Republican rally in Butler, Pennsylvania, Trump was grazed by a bullet that grazed his right ear. The Republican was treated and is expected to be in good condition. “I was shot in the upper part of my right ear. I knew immediately something was wrong when I heard a buzzing sound, gunshots and immediately felt the bullet rip through the skin,” he said later.

The shooter was killed by security officers and later identified by the FBI as 20-year-old Thomas Matthew Crooks. A rallygoer was also killed and two others were injured. The case is being treated by authorities as attempted murder and the shooter’s motives have not yet been clarified.

Immediately after being hit, Trump ducked and was protected by security guards. When he got up, he was still able to use the moment to pose with his fist clenched, as if he wanted to show strength and resilience in the face of an unsuccessful attack.

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After the attack, US President Joe Biden, a Democratic candidate running for re-election, said he was “praying for him and his family and everyone who was at the rally.” The president added that he and his wife, Jill, were “grateful to the Secret Service for getting him to safety. There is no place for this type of violence in America. We must come together as a nation to condemn it.”

President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva also spoke out on social media. “The attack on former President Donald Trump must be vehemently condemned by all defenders of democracy and dialogue in politics. What we saw today is unacceptable,” he declared.

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In a statement, the Brazilian Foreign Ministry also condemned the attack. “The Brazilian government condemns the attack that occurred today, July 13, against former US President Donald Trump. By expressing its vehement repudiation of the attack and its desire for the former president’s speedy recovery, Brazil reaffirms that any form of political violence is unacceptable in democratic societies and is closely following the full clarification of the facts.”

The leader of the PCdoB in the Chamber of Deputies, deputy Marcio Jerry (MA), said on social media: “About Trump: Let the case be clarified quickly. And total repudiation of any form of violence. In any form!”

Fellow congresswoman Jandira Feghali (RJ) also spoke out: “Given what happened today at Trump’s rally, we express our condemnation of any and all political violence, as well as anything goes in electoral processes. We will continue to monitor the information and investigations into the event.”

The case also generated reactions from heads of state, politicians and authorities from several countries.

Initial analysis

Over time, new elements and analyses will be able to tell what really happened and the weight this will have in the presidential race, scheduled for November 5. One of the questions that has been raised is that, at least initially, whether or not Biden’s candidacy will continue, an issue that has been dominating the country’s political agenda, may take a back seat to the assassination attempt.

But, even while it is still hot, many analyses are already being made to try to understand the reality and the next directions of the US campaign, taking into account the country’s weight in global geopolitics and considering the strong polarization between Democrats and Republicans and the risk of strengthening the extreme right if Trump wins.

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One of the questions that has been raised, at least here in Brazil, is whether the effect of the attack could be similar to the stabbing of Jair Bolsonaro (PL) in 2018, which sealed his path to the Planalto Palace.

The magazine CartaCapitalpolitical scientist and professor at UFRJ, Josué Medeiros, believes that the consequences will be different. After listing a series of differences that mark the political scenario there today and the one in six years, he considers that “Trumpism will do exactly what it has done in the last eight years: attack people and institutions, promise revenge and encourage its horde to react more violently”.

This move, so many months before the race, “will give the Democrats the legitimacy they need to criticize him again, and quickly, and should reduce their margin of victimization. Trump will be a martyr, but probably only for his own people,” he ponders. And he concludes: “If they replace Biden, the Democrats can regain control of the narrative, create a new fact and face a Trump who is martyred only for his own people. If they keep Biden, Trump will play alone towards victory.”

Journalist Patrícia Campos Mello, from S.Paulo Newspaper, who has been following the movements of the extreme right, especially via social networks around the world, analyzes that the political effect could be similar to that of the stabbing.

When discussing the “alleged attack” against the Republican — as she puts it throughout the article —, Patrícia highlights: “Trump is turning into a victim and there is very little room for Democratic politicians to criticize the Republican at this time. They would be seen as insensitive and cruel. The Democrats’ unanimous statements in solidarity with the Republican show the tiny room for maneuver.”

Journalist Ricardo Melo, from the website Poder 360, follows the same line: “What seems clear is that Donald Trump is coming out on top for now, as in the image captured by the Associated Press news agency, with him being led off the rally stage, bleeding from his right ear, carrying his arms and a US flag waving in the background. From defendant in a dozen lawsuits, he turns candidate into victim and inflames the patriotic feelings of his supporters and perhaps of another part of the electorate.”

With agencies