Trump does better in swing states that voted for Biden in 2020

In the United States presidential election, which will be held on November 5, 6 North American states are indicated as decisive for the race. They are: Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.

Search disclosed on May 13th at New York Times shows that former US President Donald Trump (Republican) is doing better in these states compared to Joe Biden (Democrat). The Republican leads voting intentions in Nevada and Georgia although the dispute is tight. He is technically tied with Arizona, Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.

The survey was commissioned by the North American newspaper and the Philadelphia Inquirer and done by Siena College. 4,097 voters were interviewed from April 28 to May 9, 2024, by telephone, in English and Spanish.

Territories are classified as “swing states” or “pendulum states” of this year’s election. They are also called “battleground states” (“Battleground States”in free translation) because they are where candidates for the White House focus their campaigns in order to win votes from divided voters.

The terms refer to regions in which voters sometimes vote for Republicans and sometimes for Democrats. In other words, there is no clear party loyalty. It is different from historically aligned states, such as Californiawho has voted for a Democrat since 1992, or the Alabamawhere votes have gone to the Republican Party for 44 years.

Os “swing states” vary according to each election. There is no exact definition of the criteria that identify a State “pendulum” and experts often disagree about which territories can be defined in this way. However, some points are considered for the definition. Are they:

• analysis of electoral history: whether the State elected a Democrat in one election and a Republican in another in recent years;
• if the votes were very close and the winning candidate in the territory won by a small margin;
• opinion polls and voting intentions that indicate similar voter support for the Democratic and Republican parties.

In the 2020 elections, US President Joe Biden won all 6 states considered “pendulum” in 2024. All with an advantage of less than 3 percentage points, but which gave the Democrat 79 of the 270 delegates needed to be elected.

NON-MANDATORY VOTING

In the US, no one is required by law to vote in any local, state or presidential election. According to the Constitution, voting is a right, but it is not a requirement.

ELECTORAL COLLEGE

The President and Vice President of the United States are elected indirectly by the Electoral College. Each State has the same number of delegates as seats in Congress (House of Deputies and Senate). There are 538 delegates.

After you vote for president, your vote is counted at the state level. In 48 states and Washington, D.C. the winner receives all of that state’s electoral votes. Maine and Nebraska assign their electors using a proportional system.

A candidate needs the votes of at least 270 delegates – more than half of the total – to win the presidential election.

Typically, a projected winner is announced on election night in November. However, the official Electoral College vote is held in mid-December when the delegates meet.

The results for this year’s elections will be announced on January 6, 2025. The inauguration will take place on January 20.