Celag research points to Iván Cepeda’s turnaround in Colombia

The Latin American Strategic Center for Geopolitics (Celag Data) released this Sunday morning (14) a survey that shows senator Iván Cepeda, candidate of the Historic Pact and the Petro government, ahead of the Colombian presidential race with 40.8% of voting intentions, against 39.7% for the fascist Abelardo de la Espriella. A turnaround in previous projections that pointed to a lead for Trump’s candidate of up to 8%.

At the same time, the academic survey indicates that blank votes would have 7.6% support, 6.7% of those interviewed said they would invalidate their vote and 5.2% preferred not to give their opinion.

“The key will be those who are still undecided. And among them, the largest group are new voters, that is, those who did not vote in the first round, but who can vote in the second. This population is more in favor of Iván Cepeda than Abelardo de la Espriella. The final result will depend on whether this sector votes in a proportion similar to that of 2022. If they mobilize, they will tip the scales in favor of Iván Cepeda”, explained Alfredo Serrano Manc, director of Celag.

In addition to the issue of “new voters” and the “young electorate”, says the Strategic Center, it is necessary to take into account the behavior of electoral coalitions, as while the supporters of uribista Paloma Valencia tend to remain compact, the centrist forces of Sérgio Fajardo and Claudia López remain divided between abstention and Cepeda. In the first round, Valencia obtained 6.9% of the votes, Fajardo 4.2% and López around 1%.

Quilcué calls on activists to take the front line

Excited by the results of the survey, indigenous leader Aida Quilcué, candidate for Cepeda’s vice-president, called on activists to take the front line, as “this is the time to fight, to persuade, to mobilize and fill the ballot boxes with dignity and democracy”.

The right and its media, warned Quilcué, “want to impose fear, restrict rights, persecute dissent and return the country to those who, for decades, governed for a privileged minority.” “We now call upon all the forces that defend life, peace and social justice, without exception. If we unite, we will win. If we mobilize, we will defeat fear. On June 21, Colombia will be able to write a new popular victory!”, he emphasized.

Celag survey confronts manipulations

The Geopolitics Center’s projections compare to the “research” previously propagated by the National Consulting Center (CNC) and published by the media oligopoly Cambio – controlled by economic and financial groups –, which places the ultra-rightist with an advantage of 48.6% against 44.7% for the progressive candidate. “Latest survey: De la Espriella consolidates his leadership and Cepeda is running out of time to catch up”, reinforced the pamphlet.

Other “surveys”, such as that by Atlas Intel for Semana magazine, show that the ultra-right candidate would obtain 52.2% against 44.5% for progressive forces. The manipulation tactic is crude: on the cover De la Espriella appears smiling and a worried Cepeda. In Guarumo and Ecoanalógica, published by El Tiempo, a conglomerate owned by banker and businessman Luis Carlos Sarmiento Ângulo, the narco-terrorist widens his advantage: he has 52.6% of the votes against only 45% for the senator. A true anything-goes campaign to maintain privileges.

Militancy takes to the streets excitedly

In the streets of Bogotá, the atmosphere of change prevails, with humor, selflessness and lots of color, as expressed by medical student Natália, “the Guatemalan”. Dressed in Cepeda’s t-shirt, raising the flag “We are people”, from the Historic Pact, and wearing a mask and eagle wings, the young woman highlights the relevance of “a management that defended nature and the most vulnerable classes with social programs that reached the entire country”. “In the opposite direction, we have a foreign candidate, who symbolizes anti-values, who wants to end social programs, and embodies hatred, fear and retaliation”, highlighted Natália.

Carrying her young daughter in the stroller, Érika Varon, from the Colombian Federation of People with Disabilities and Caregivers (Fediscol), is “confident of victory in the second round due to the breadth of alliances reached by Cepeda and, above all, the awareness that human rights and biodiversity are at stake”. After all, he considered, “we want a government for life, above the expectations of a few”. “Because the ultra-right has been very clear that it will not guarantee respect for the Paramos, nor for the peasant populations, for the victims of the armed conflict and the 8,737 false positives. What the rival proposes is to end the Special Jurisdiction for Peace, which is extremely serious, because the context in which it arose was precisely to defend the victims of the armed conflict”, he highlighted.

De La Espriella sought American citizenship over Colombian leadership

Érika Varon also warned that in De La Espriella’s project, “the State is being co-opted by the mafia and multinationals, by someone who accepted North American citizenship over Colombian citizenship, who is playing with national sovereignty”.

“It is extremely regrettable that in a country where for so long we have been governed by agents submissive to Americans, a candidate is now presented who swears allegiance to him and takes an oath before his flag”, declared lawyer Ana Maria Pirilla, adding that this is an additional element in her mobilization for the re-election of the Historic Pact.

Business administration student at the National University and accounting worker, Gustavo Urquijo denounced “the strong load of disinformation that has been unloaded on Colombians in recent months, with a dirty campaign by the extreme right”. “They invented all kinds of things to discredit Cepeda’s campaign and the progress made by the country in recent years with our president Gustavo Petro, who lifted many people out of poverty. And that’s what hurts the right, because big companies are having to pay more taxes, that education is public, that more people are able to progress”, he concluded.

This coverage by the ComunicaSul Collaborative Communication Agency was only possible thanks to the support of the São Paulo Bank Workers Union; Writers’ Union of the State of São Paulo; newspaper Hora do Povo; Red; Global South Dialogues; Citizenship Mail; Baron of Itararé; councilor Werner Tempel (PCdoB) of Santa Maria-RS; Professor Azuaite, from São Carlos-SP; Angelim Institute, the Public Services International (ISP) and the Colombian Workers’ Unitary Center, as well as several anonymous contributors.