Photo: Emma Kaden/CC BY-SA 2.0

The presidential elections in the United States will take place in one year, on November 5, 2024. Even though the primaries of the Democratic and Republican parties will only take place next year, there is the prerogative that the incumbent president be acclaimed for the dispute out of deference, in the in the case of Joe Biden, and Donald Trump would be the most anticipated competitor, to repeat the 2020 contest. Both lead the preferences in their parties.

In this context, voting intention polls already highlight the two as the main candidates and Trump appears ahead in key states – known as pendulum states – to decide the elections, with the newspaper The New York Times.

The former US president appears in the lead in Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada and Pennsylvania, the latter state guaranteed Biden’s victory in the last election. According to the newspaper, these are 5 of the 6 most important states in deciding an electoral victory. The other state is Wisconsin, in which Biden leads. In all of them, the current president beat Trump in the last election, a scenario that doesn’t seem so promising this time.

Among the factors weighing against Trump is that he became the first former US president indicted for a crime. He could even be convicted, which does not prevent him from running in the elections and taking office if he wins.

In Biden’s case, what draws attention, even though it is a preference among Democrats, is his advanced age, which makes a good number of Americans question whether it would be the best decision to leave the dispute aside.

Read too: Biden embraces “Bernie Sanders mode” to attract unions and isolate Trump

But everything will depend on how the country’s economy will be until the elections. If the current government manages to avoid a recession, contrary to forecasts, and keep the unemployment level low (currently at 3.9%), Biden will qualify for re-election.

The current wars in Ukraine and between Palestine and Israel will also be an issue in these elections, as will the oil price.


According to the survey commissioned by Times at Siena College, Trump scores 52% against Biden’s 41% in Nevada, wins 49% against 44% in Arizona, 48% against 44% in Pennsylvania, 49% against 43% in Georgia, 48% against 43% in Michigan. In Wisconsin, Biden appears with 47% against Trump’s 44%.

The survey involved 3,662 people from six states. The margin of error was 4.4 to 4.8 percentage points.

*With information from O Globo and Carta Capital


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