Published 17/03/2025 15:25 | Edited 17/03/2025 16:08
The image of a vessel facing revolting waves served to illustrate a report released on Monday (17) by the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) on world economic performance. The general forecast points to a drop in growth in the face of Donald Trump’s erratic and despotic behavior, which has been carried out a trade war against other countries.
According to the body, the global growth rate of 3.2% in 2024 is expected to slow down to 3.1% by 2025 and to 3% in 2026. To make such an assessment, the OECD considered the adoption of the United States from 25% import rates, as Trump has been signaling, in the midst of ads and setbacks.
Those who should suffer more strongly this reduction in the economy are Canada neighbors -whose growth is expected to fall to 0.7%, which corresponds to less than half of the organization’s forecast at the end of the year -and Mexico -which could recession, with -1.3% this year and 0.6% next year.
In the case of Canada, the previous forecast pointed to a 2% advance for this and next year, while Mexico could have 1.2% and 1.6% in 2025 and 2026.
However, the measures adopted by Trump will also impact the United States themselves. For this year, the country’s growth forecast, according to the report, went from 2.4% to 2.2% this year and 2.1% to 1.6% in 2026.
Also according to the analysis, the increase in basic prices will remain above the goals set by governments for this and next year in many countries, including the US. According to the document, “increased commercial restrictions will contribute to higher costs to both production and consumption. It is essential to ensure an international trade system in proper functioning and keep markets open.”
Brazil, according to the OECD, may also have impacts on its growth due to the taxation on steel and aluminum, with reductions of 0.2 and 0.5 percentage point in 2025 and 2026, respectively, with growth of 2.1% and 1.4% in those years.
On the other hand, China’s growth-which was 5% by 2024 and is expected to be 4.8% in 2025 and 4.4% next year-is expected to compensate, from a global point of view, the sharp slowdown in US countries.
Above China, positive performances from India are expected – 6.4% and 6.6% advances in this and next year – and Indonesia – with 4.9% and 5% in 2025 and 2026.
Source: vermelho.org.br
