It takes place this Tuesday (05), in the United States, Super Tuesday: the day is the most important of the previews that define the candidates who will compete in the November presidential election – both for the Democratic Party and the Republican Party.

The reason for its importance is simple: this year, in a single day, 15 states vote, including the two most populous, California and Texas. Consequently, the largest number of delegates is distributed. This is the moment when candidacies are consolidated or become unviable.

In 2008, for example, Democratic Super Tuesday had 23 states up for grabs. Barack Obama won in 13, becoming the favorite in the dispute that would take him, months later, to the White House.

In 2016, Super Tuesday was divided into two. In the Republican Party caucuses, Trump did better in the first, winning 7 of the 11 states. In the second, with 6 in dispute, he took 5. In short: it is difficult to turn the tide after a candidate wins Super Tuesday.

A Super Tuesday without surprises

In 2024, however, the day will not be as exciting as usual. In the Democratic caucuses, Biden is the favorite in all 15 states. For Republicans, the same happens with Donald Trump.

Still, on both sides, there are expectations about what will happen. Winning Super Tuesday is one thing, but how you win also matters.

On the Democratic side, a campaign for “uncommitted” voting, a type of null vote, worries the current president’s campaign.

Social movements, unions and political figures, such as Congresswoman Rashida Talib, are calling this null vote a form of protest against the White House’s support for Israel. In Michigan, the number of invalid votes exceeded 13%. More than a humiliation, the vote represents difficulties for the Democrat in November and, potentially, crucial votes to define the election.

On the Republican side, all eyes are on Nikki Haley. The former governor and former US ambassador to the UN promised to remain in the race until Super Tuesday, but after that no one knows what will happen.

Haley has already stated that she will continue until there is a real dispute. If she loses badly, tomorrow could be the end of the Republican caucuses in practice. Good news for Trump, who will be able to focus on the general election. If she does better than expected, however, the former president may have to deal with more months of friendly fire.

The results of Super Tuesday should begin to be published on Tuesday itself, after 10pm Brasília time. Final results, including from West Coast polls, should be available as early as the following morning.

Editing: Rodrigo Durão Coelho


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