Russia escapes strategic defeat and could go to “total victory”

It is still difficult for the headlines of the international press to admit the dimension of what happened this Saturday (24) in the southwest of Russia. After the fanfare surrounding the revolt led by Yevgeny V. Prigozhin, the head of the Wagner mercenary group, against the Russian military leadership, the day ended with their retreat, ending hostilities and heading in exile to Belarus, while columns of Wagner fighters left Rostov-on-Don. Sunday dawned with the golden domes of the Kremlin gleaming like never before.

The dust of the turbulent Saturday settled, the red portal consulted the journalist Wevergton Brito, national vice-president of Cebrapaz (Centro Brasileiro de Solidariedade ao Povos e Luta pela Paz) for an assessment of the effects of a day that promised parties and fireworks in NATO allied countries.

The international analyst sums up what he saw as an opportunity for Russian President Vladimir Putin, who escaped a strategic defeat and could inflict a total defeat on Ukrainian Volodymir Zelensky. “It turns out that Putin leaves with a very large capital. And, if in the course of the next few days, the situation manages to stabilize, Russia can go for a total victory. It could have been a shot in the foot”, he says.

The explanation of Wevergton’s argument assumes that there was coordination of a broad movement to ensure a political, military defeat and perhaps trigger a popular movement against Putin. As the information was released, it became evident, for him, the intelligence coordination of the USA and NATO (the North Atlantic military alliance) for this whole movement.

The newspaper The New York Times claims that US national security officials had indications as early as Wednesday (21) that Prigojin was preparing for military action against senior Russian defense officials.

“This movement by the head of Wagner, Prigozhin, with the US, coordinated with the increased activity of the Ukrainian counter-offensive that was launched yesterday in several directions, and which was repulsed, was not a coincidence. It was, perhaps, the biggest counteroffensive movement since the beginning of the war, and coordinated with the beginning of a rebellion that would march on Moscow to destabilize the entire line of command, and that would cause a fundamental and strategic defeat”, he describes.

ukrainian fragility

“I would say that, yesterday, Russia escaped a strategic defeat and can move towards a total victory, from this moment on, if Putin manages to fully stabilize the situation”, he bet.

In his opinion, Ukraine showed great military fragility by not achieving victory in its counteroffensive, even in the face of a serious internal political crisis by Putin, with armed rebellion. “Even so, Ukraine has not managed to advance in the moves it has made. This reveals, on the other hand, that the vast majority of the command of the Russian Armed Forces is loyal to Putin, ”he says.

The failed rebellion also reveals, according to the analyst, that there is great unity in the political field around Putin.

“Prigojin just didn’t go ahead with his plan because he saw he was going to be defeated. There is information that Wagner units refused to participate”, informs the journalist, who closely followed the unfolding of the international news on Saturday.

Wevergton also points out that in the midst of this crisis, Putin repelled a massive invasion announced by the Ukrainian Ministry of Defense itself, which said it was initiating the largest movement of Ukrainian troops since the beginning of the war. Since no more was said about the matter later, the deafening silence demonstrates the failure of the operation.

“Putin’s capital, together with the victories he achieved yesterday, demonstrate Zelensky’s failure,” he observes. The analyst says this, despite the entire American press trying to downplay the disaster, focusing on Putin’s alleged loss of authority and prestige with the Wagner rebellion.

Coup against Putin

In the opinion of the Cebrapaz leader, many details of what happened are yet to be revealed in the coming days. Especially about the fate of the Wagner group, and its 20,000 fighters, who may submit to the command of the Russian Ministry of Defense, something they have always refused, or be dismantled with the exile of their founder.

“But it is already clear that, by taking the military installations in Rostov-on-Don without resistance, as the Russian agencies themselves reported, the Wagner group exposed that there is some problem in the Russian Armed Forces in relation to Putin”, he admits.

According to him, there are sectors of the Russian Armed Forces that agree with Prigojin’s criticism of the high command. “But these criticisms were clearly a pretext for carrying out a coup d’état and inflicting a strategic defeat on Russia”, he assesses. “So it was all very well coordinated with Western intelligence services.”

For Wevergton, it is clear that Prigojin is, today, an agent of NATO services. “It went to the other side”. “The USA was informed by the Wagner group itself of this timed action, which would not have taken place in the heat of an air attack on its columns, as it claims it suffered from Russian aviation. It was a coordinated thing along with the Ukrainian counter-offensive to inflict a strategic defeat”, he points out.