Panic in Lebanon reveals risks to Middle East as Netanyahu is cornered

A series of bad news about Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s government and its quest to remain in power has put the Middle East on the brink of a precipice. The day of chaos in Lebanon, caused by the attack on pagers targeting the Shiite group Hezbollah, on Tuesday (17), is a harbinger of escalation into a regional conflict, amid Netanyahu’s intentions to change the formal war objectives.

The last few weeks have been the most pressured time for the Israeli prime minister, who has only held on to power thanks to the protection that orthodox and supremacist parties have given to his mandate, which has been marked by allegations of corruption and authoritarianism. During this period, Tel Aviv witnessed the largest protest against the government since the beginning of the conflict, when it announced the killing of six hostages by Hamas, after a failed military incursion.

Israel also recorded the first successful bombing of the country’s territory by the Houthis, right in the financial capital, Tel Aviv. Finally, another piece of news that shook Israel, increasing the population’s resistance to the Netanyahu administration, was the release of an army investigation in which the military admitted the deaths of three other hostages due to “friendly fire” during the thousands of bombings launched in the Gaza Strip.

To protect himself from successive mistakes, the prime minister has been pushing the envelope in the Middle East as a way of securing parliamentary support from the far-right groups that form his coalition.

On Tuesday (15), for example, panic took hold in Lebanon and raised fear in the region after small detonations in several cities in the country led to the death of nine people and injured four thousand others. The simultaneous explosions were triggered remotely through pagers used by members of Hezbollah, in a sabotage operation carried out by Mossad, Israel’s intelligence service.

The unprecedented attack plunged Lebanon into chaos. Security camera footage from across the country captured scenes of terror in markets, shops and other public spaces, as explosions in the pockets of suspected Hezbollah militants hit scores of people in the vicinity.

According to international correspondents, ambulance sirens were the predominant sound at a certain time of the day and hospitals were filled with injured people.

Although the Shiite group is considered a terrorist militia by the West, Hezbollah has political representation in the Lebanese Parliament and party members interact daily with other citizens of the country.

Naji Abi Rached, medical director of Beirut’s Geitaoui University Hospital, said: “We have been receiving critical cases since the explosions. The hospital is overwhelmed, the operating rooms are overwhelmed and the emergency unit is overwhelmed with seriously injured patients.”

Lebanese Prime Minister Najib Mikati’s office called the incident “criminal Israeli aggression” in a statement, adding that it was “a serious violation of Lebanese sovereignty.” The country’s foreign ministry described the blasts as a “dangerous and deliberate Israeli escalation” that it said was “accompanied by Israeli threats to expand the war to the whole of Lebanon.” Beirut plans to file a complaint against Israel with the U.N. Security Council.

Hezbollah also blamed Israel, confirmed the deaths of at least two militants and vowed retaliation. Leader Hassan Nasrallah is due to address the nation on Thursday (19).

Other Muslim armed resistance groups and militias also expressed condemnation of the attack. Hamas condemned the attack as a “Zionist terrorist aggression.”

“We strongly condemn the Zionist terrorist aggression that targeted Lebanese citizens by detonating communication devices in several areas of Lebanese territory,” Hamas said in a statement, claiming that this was an escalation that will only lead Israel to “failure and defeat.”

The Houthis and the Iraqi cell of Hezbollah also condemned the cyberattack.

Just hours before news of the explosions in Lebanon broke in major news outlets around the world, Netanyahu announced that the return of residents who were evacuated from their home in northern Israel after the start of skirmishes with Hezbollah was a new priority in the war that the Jewish state has been waging against Hamas for almost a year.

In practice, this paves the way for a major military action by Tel Aviv against the Shiite group operating in southern Lebanon, on the border with Israel. Until now, the formal justification for the war was to destroy Hamas’ military capabilities and free hostages held by the faction.

On Monday (16), Defense Minister Yoav Gallant stated that the possibility of a diplomatic solution to the conflict with Hezbollah was “running out.” “The only way to ensure the return of communities in northern Israel to their homes will be through military action,” he admitted.

The Israeli military and Hezbollah have been exchanging missiles since October 7 in a conflict that was previously considered covert, not overt. However, the number and intensity of the attacks have increased in recent months. In early August, Israel assassinated the Shiite group’s military leader in a bombing in a suburb of the Lebanese capital, Beirut. Hezbollah has since retaliated with missiles.

The conflict on Israel’s northern border with southern Lebanon is an extension of the war waged by the Jewish army with Hamas in the Gaza Strip, where more than 41,000 Palestinians have lost their lives after thousands of Israeli bombings in residential neighborhoods and humanitarian zones.

The war has also taken a toll on Israel’s own citizens, as some 250,000 people have been officially evacuated from their homes in northern and southern Israel along the borders with Lebanon and Gaza, or have left their homes voluntarily due to their proximity to the borders. The firefights have also killed hundreds of civilians in Lebanon.

Succession of mistakes puts pressure on Netanyahu who goes on the attack to save himself

A series of mistakes by the Netanyahu administration have had adverse effects on the population of the Middle East, as, under pressure, the Israeli prime minister has pushed the envelope on other fronts of combat instead of seeking a diplomatic and humanitarian solution to the disagreements.

In early September, demonstrations shook the country after the army announced the death of six hostages inside the Gaza Strip. An Israeli military operation entered the Arab enclave with the aim of carrying out rescues, but ended in tragedy. Upon approaching the place of captivity, Hamas members executed the hostages and fled the scene.

More than 500,000 people took to the streets of major cities across the country in what was billed as the largest protests since October 7, demanding a ceasefire agreement that would allow the safe return of the hostages. The size of the protests forced Netanyahu to publicly apologize to the six families, a rare move for someone known for his arrogance and intransigence.

Israel’s main ally in the world, the United States, has also pressed for Tel Aviv to accept the terms of the ceasefire agreement brokered by them, Egypt and Qatar. Netanyahu, however, doubled down and criticized any flexibility in the Israeli position.

“These killers executed six of the hostages with shots to the back of the head,” Bibi said. “After that, they want us to make more concessions? Hamas is the one that needs to make concessions. We have already made them,” he said.

In another incident seen as another failure by the Netanyahu government, Yemen’s Houthis managed to launch a missile into Israeli territory. The projectile crossed into the country and landed in an open area in central Israel, with no injuries reported, according to the Israel Defense Forces (IDF).

Videos and images shared by the Israel Fire and Rescue Authority on Telegram show large clouds of smoke and broken glass inside a train station in Modi’in, a city between Tel Aviv and Jerusalem.

Although no civilian or military casualties have been reported, the Houthi attack represents Israel’s fragility in the face of a rudderless government.