Crisis in Portugal overthrow government, anticipates elections and redesign political map

Portugal plunged into another political crisis in early March 2025, with the fall of the center-right government led by Prime Minister Luís Montenegro. The vote of distrust presented by the socialists (PS) and supported by the far right (arrives) precipitated the resignation of the executive and paved the way for new legislative elections, scheduled for May 18.

President Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa’s decision to dissolve Parliament occurs amid charges of conflict of interest involving Montenegro’s family businesses, which culminated in a scenario of government instability.

Montenegro, who took office in November 2023 after António Costa’s resignation, saw his legitimacy crumble quickly. Despite denying irregularities, complaints about contracts of companies linked to their family with public entities undermined their support base in Parliament. Pedro Nuno Santos, PS leader, accused Montenegro of “cowardly renunciation” by summoning the vote to avoid a parliamentary investigation. “The crisis originates in the prime minister,” he said, highlighting the demand for transparency.

The fall of the Montenegro government and the convening of new elections mark the beginning of a new chapter in Portuguese politics. With the left seeking to rescue the formula of the “sprint” and the far right facing challenges to maintain its rise, the country prepares for a fierce electoral debate.

Analysts warn that, without clear majority, the next government may repeat chronic instability. Portugal is trapped in premature election cycles, as this is the third parliamentary dissolution since 2022.

The Portuguese president, Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa, made the dissolution of Parliament official after consulting parties, reinforcing that the crisis “was born in the executive”. Its decision maintains the government in current management, without decision -making power until the elections. Sousa, known for critical interventions in times of turbulence, avoided pointing preferences, but pressured Montenegro to take responsibility.

Enough: Fragile Ascension and Electoral Risks

The Portuguese far right, represented by André Ventura’s arrival, may face a significant setback in the next elections. After consolidating himself as the third largest political force in the 2024 elections, with 50 seats and 18% of the votes, the party registered a sharp drop in voting intentions, from 17.4% to 13.5%, according to recent polls.

The internal crises and the wear caused by disputes within the party question the ability to keep their electorate. Although Ventura has stated that the blame for calling the elections falls on Montenegro, analysts evaluate that the party needs to overcome its own weaknesses to prevent an even greater loss of space in Parliament.

Fragmented Left Searches Unit in the Geringonça

Parties to the left of the political spectrum, which lost relevance in the last elections, face a crucial moment. The Left Bloc (BE) and the PCP (Communist Party), which integrated the historic “geringonça” between 2015 and 2019, are trying to recover space in a growing polarization scenario.

Paulo Raimundo, Secretary-General of the PCP, highlighted the need for unity and popular mobilization to face the May elections. According to him, “it is in concrete proposals and commitment to workers and populations residing the strength of the CDU,” the Unit Democratic Coalition, an electoral and political coalition between the Portuguese Communist Party and the ecologist party “The Green”.

The BE, although in modest rise, faces the dilemma of allying with the PS or maintaining independence. The block recorded a slight increase in voting intentions, from 1.5% to 2.9%. However, without a wide coalition, the chances of influencing the next government seem limited. The possibility of a new “sprint” depends on a strategic articulation that is not yet clear, as replicating the model would require complex concessions

Polls indicate uncertainty and political fragmentation

The May elections place Portugal in Crossroads: between populist temptation of arrives, the search for stability by the PS and the resistance of a weakened PSD. Montenegro’s fall exposed ethical cracks in the center-right, while the left tries to reposition itself as a credible alternative.

Opinion polls conducted before and after the fall of the government reveal a scenario of uncertainty. Neither the PSD nor the PS can demonstrate a clear advantage, and the dispersion of votes between smaller parties makes it unlikely that any political force reaches absolute majority.

The first poll, held before the complaints against Montenegro, showed the PSD leading with 32% of voting intentions, followed by the PS with 29%. The second survey, done after the crisis, indicated a slight reduction in the difference between the two main parties, with the PS rising to 31% and the PSD falling to 30%.

This fragmentation reflects popular dissatisfaction with current governance models. For many voters, the priority is to choose a stable government and capable of solving structural problems such as housing, health and education.

Regardless of the result, it is clear that Portugal needs to overcome institutional instability and build a governability agenda that dialogue with the demands of the population. As Pedro Nuno Santos pointed out, “we have to choose a lasting government, with conditions not to be on time.”