Trump leads in three swing states, NYT/Siena poll finds

The yellow light is on in the Democratic Party campaign for the United States presidential election on November 5. The new poll conducted by the New York Times and Siena College shows an increasingly tight race between Vice President Kamala Harris and Republican and former President Donald Trump.

The alert sounded as soon as the survey showed the leadership of the American far-right leader in three of the seven swing states, Arizona, Georgia and North Carolina, even though on the national scene Kamala’s voting intentions are greater than Trump’s.

According to the poll, the billionaire has increased his lead in Arizona and is ahead in Georgia. The former US president lost both states to Joe Biden in 2020. In North Carolina, which has not voted for a Democrat since 2008, the Republican leads against Kamala Harris by a narrow margin.

Polls in these three states, conducted between September 17 and 21, provided further evidence that, in a deeply divided country, the presidential race is shaping up to be one of the closest in history.

Arizona

Trump: 49%

Kamala: 45%

Georgia

Trump: 49%

Kamala: 45%

North Carolina

Trump: 49%

Kamala: 47%

In 2020, Biden won in Arizona by just over 10,000 votes, but the state poses a challenge for Harris. Trump leads by 50 percent to Harris’s 45 percent, according to the poll. A Times/Siena poll of the state in August showed Harris leading by 5 percentage points. Latino voters in particular appear to have shifted away from the Democratic Party, though a significant number — 10 percent — said they were now undecided.

Already North Carolinawhere Trump won by less than 75,000 votes in 2020, the former president has a small advantage over Kamala, leading with 49% to the Democrat’s 47%.

The poll, however, was conducted before new information was released about comments made by North Carolina Republican gubernatorial candidate Mark Robinson on a pornography forum. Governor Robinson has made a series of disturbing comments on a pornography website over the past decade, CNN reported Thursday. In one of them, Robinson called himself a “black Nazi” and expressed support for the return of slavery.

The repercussions of the case could further disrupt Republican plans in North Carolina.

Already Georgiaa state where Biden won by just under 12,000 votes in 2020, the Republican continues to have a slight advantage over Kamala: 49% to 45%.

No national scenariohowever, Vice President Kamala Harris appears three percentage points ahead of Donald Trump: 50% to 47%.