Post-attack poll shows stable outlook for US election

The first survey after the attack on Republican candidate Donald Trump, last Saturday (13), reveals a still stable scenario in the voting intentions of the United States population.

The former president and the current president, Joe Biden, appear tied within the margin of error in an Ipsos/Reuters presidential poll released on Tuesday (16). The Republican has 43%, while the Democrat appears with 41%. The last Ipsos poll before the attack, carried out between July 1 and 2, had shown both candidates with 40% of voting intentions each.

Tuesday’s survey interviewed 1,202 people, including 992 registered voters, between July 14 and 16. The margin of error is 3 percentage points, either way.

Trump, therefore, swung two percentage points higher, within the margin of error, while Biden swung one percentage point higher.

First survey after the attack (July 16)

Joe Biden (Democrats): 41%

Donald Trump (Republicans): 43%

Last survey before the attack (July 1st and 2nd)

Joe Biden (Democrats): 40%

Donald Trump (Republicans): 40%

The election results reveal that this is a race that has not shown much movement at the national level throughout the campaign. After Biden’s poor performance in the debate in late June, polls have shown only minimal movement towards him.

The survey also found that four out of five Americans fear that the United States is spiraling out of control after the attack on Trump. According to the survey:

• 84% of voters said they are concerned about violence after the election;
• 5% said it was acceptable for someone to commit violence to achieve a political objective;
• 65% of registered Republicans said Trump was favored by divine power. The figure is 11% among Democrats.