Published 10/29/2024 17:03 | Edited 10/29/2024 18:26
One week before the North American election, the daily TIPP survey reveals this Tuesday (29) that Kamala Harris reached 48% of voting intentions against 47% for Donald Trump. This is a technical tie within the margin of error of 2.7 percentage points.
The Folha de S.Paulo report, which published the survey, highlights that the Washington Post newspaper considers this survey to be the most accurate of the 2020 electoral cycle.
“Nationwide numbers, however, may not reflect the final result of the election, as the American process is based on the Electoral College system.”
The TIPP survey also points out which segments are most conquered by candidates. The former president is growing among voters with high school education, the black population and the share of citizens over 65 years old.
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The current vice president has more acceptance among voters who say they have some level of education and those who say they are not Democrats or Republicans. In this case, they claim to be independent or “other”.
In the so-called seven pendulum states, considered decisive, the scenario is different. In them, Trump appears ahead with a 1.1 point advantage. In 2020, Biden appeared 4 points ahead; in 2016, Hillary led by 5 points.
Given this situation, the Democratic candidate and the Republican candidate concentrate their campaigns in these states.
They are: Michigan, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Nevada, Arizona, Georgia and North Carolina.
Other polls indicate Kamala’s advantage in four of the seven states, but with 3 percentage points ahead, that is, within the margin of error.
Another campaign strategy in this final stretch is to seek votes from undecided voters.
Source: vermelho.org.br
