US elections: out Biden, in Kamala. Or what changes?

Joe Biden’s withdrawal from running for re-election next November has forced the Democratic Party to find a new candidate for the presidency of the United States. In some ways, Biden’s decision came as a surprise, given that, after the assassination attempt on Donald Trump, the pressure for him to withdraw from running had all but disappeared within the ranks of the Democratic Party. Given the difficulties at this point in organizing new competitive primaries to choose a new candidate, the natural choice was current Vice President Kamala Harris.

Kamala Harris benefited from Biden’s stubbornness, because if there had been a competitive primary election with Biden out of the running, she would have been unlikely to be the chosen candidate. As Machiavelli said, the prince needs luck and virtue. She has already had luck; it remains to be seen whether she will have the virtue necessary to win the election. In the face of a vicious election fueled by fear and loathing, Kamala needs to offer hope to the United States.

The daughter of immigrants – a Jamaican father and an Indian mother – Kamala Harris has had a successful political career in California, where she served as attorney general before being elected senator and vice president. Harris has the advantage of being relatively young compared to both Biden and Trump. She may also gain new support from being a woman and a black woman.

On the political spectrum, she is considered a centrist politician in her home state of California. But as the Economist stated (July 27), “A West Coast centrist is not a centrist in the swing states she is likely to win.” She is considered further to the left than Biden, but not to the point of alarming the American conservative elite. In fact, both the Democratic Party and the Republican Party share common views on issues that are really important to the American establishment, namely on the point that interests them most, which is foreign policy.

China is the favorite punching bag of both Democrats and Republicans. If elected, there will certainly be no substantial changes in US foreign policy on important issues such as US support for Ukraine, Israel and Taiwan, as well as the policy of confrontation with China and Russia.

Polls conducted shortly after her confirmation as the new Democratic Party candidate indicate that Donald Trump’s previous lead over Biden has narrowed. Some even now point to Kamala being ahead. Trump’s lead over Biden, which had been maintained for months and was reinforced by the failed assassination attempt, has apparently disappeared. In the media spectacle that is the US election, Biden’s resignation and Kamala’s nomination to replace him have completely overshadowed the episode of the failed assassination attempt on Trump, which has disappeared from the news and, apparently, from voters’ minds.

However, it is important to be aware of the peculiarities of the American electoral system. As Joe Ravitch wrote in an article in the Economist (7/22/2024), “More importantly, America’s strange electoral system means that most state voting results are predetermined, and election outcomes will hinge on a small number of swing states, such as Michigan, Pennsylvania, Arizona, Georgia and Wisconsin. The key for Democrats is to nominate a ticket that can win over disaffected independent voters in these states, not win more votes in the deep blue states on the coasts. A fresh, high-energy ticket will contrast sharply with an aging plutocrat whose party’s positions on abortion and a host of other substantive issues are deeply unpopular.”

In this sense, the choice of the vice presidential candidate on each ticket is important. In the case of the Democratic ticket, many argued that the vice presidential candidate should come from one of these “swing states,” which pointed to Josh Shapiro, governor of Pennsylvania, Mark Kelly, senator from Arizona, Tony Evers, governor of Wisconsin, or the governor of Michigan, Gretchen Whitmer. The choice, however, fell on the governor of Minnesota, Tim Walz.

The choice of Tim Walz was praised by most commentators, although there are doubts as to whether it will help Kamala much electorally. According to Perry Bacon Jr. (Washington Post), “Minnesota Governor Tim Walz is a great choice for Kamala Harris’ running mate, bringing legislative and political acumen and a fresh perspective to the mix. The only negative aspect: it is not clear whether this move will help Harris much electorally.” (Estadão, 06/08/2024).

Bacon Jr. added that “Walz will also bring a fresh perspective to both the campaign and the White House if he and Harris are elected. In a party dominated by lawyers and urbanites, the Minnesota governor hails from small-town Nebraska and was a high school social studies teacher and football coach before entering politics.” The argument for choosing Walz over the other candidates was that there is little evidence that vice presidential candidates make much of a difference, even in their home states. But in a close race like this one, small differences can be decisive.

One of Biden’s biggest problems, apart from the electorate’s distrust of his physical and mental capacity to successfully complete a second term that would begin at the age of 81, was the difficulty in capitalizing politically on the positive economic data, namely low unemployment rates, and dissociating himself from the negative data, namely inflation. Prices in the United States are on average 20% higher than they were when Biden took office. And this is a problem that people feel every day when they go to the supermarket, which has made Biden an unpopular candidate. The expectation of Democratic Party campaign strategists is that it will be easier for Kamala to dissociate herself from the economic problems.

According to Colby Smith and James Politi of the Financial Times, “The likely Democratic candidate is already adopting the most popular aspects of Joe Biden’s legislative plans and achievements and trying to highlight the differences in relation to Trump’s proposals. On the other hand, the candidate hopes to be less affected than the current president by the crisis generated by the high cost of living in recent years.” (Valor, 7/28/2024).

According to the article, “Kamala Harris used the first week of the election campaign to present the economic plan aimed at the American middle class that she will implement if she defeats Republican Donald Trump in the US presidential election in November. “Strengthening the middle class is the defining goal of my presidency,” the candidate told an enthusiastic crowd of voters in a Wisconsin school gym on Tuesday. “But Donald Trump wants to take your country backwards.”

As for Trump’s campaign, the choice of the young senator from Ohio, JD Vance, as his vice-presidential candidate does not seem to have added much to his campaign. On the contrary, it reinforces some negative aspects. As noted in a report by Folha de S. Paulo (7/15/2024), “Vance has opinions that should make it difficult for Trump to appeal to a less extremist electorate: while the former president defends a moderate stance on abortion, for example, the senator has already supported the ban adopted in Texas on the procedure and criticized exceptions made for cases of rape and incest. In addition, he is in favor of a federal law against the termination of pregnancy — today, thanks to a Supreme Court decision (with favorable votes from the three judges appointed by Trump), each state in the country decides whether to ban abortion or not. Recently, Vance has softened his speech to get closer to Trump.”