Published 07/15/2025 11:25 | Edited 15/07/2025 11:57
China’s economy grew 5.2% in the second quarter of 2025, exceeding market expectations and confirming the country’s resilience against the US tariff climbing.
The data, released on Tuesday (15) by the National Department of Statistics (NBS), maintains the second largest economy in the world on the way to reach the annual growth target of “about 5%”.
The performance was driven by exports and the industrial sector, which compensated for the weakness of internal demand and the prolonged effects of the crisis in the real estate sector. Analysts consulted by Reuters and the Wind platform predicted an expansion between 5.1% and 5.17%, below the end result.
Even facing effective rates greater than 40% over Chinese products – according to estimates by Morgan Stanley – exports in the country grew 5.9% in the first half.
The advance was pulled by exports to Southeast Asia, Europe and other markets, which compensated for the drop in sales to the United States.
According to the Financial Times, part of the good performance in foreign trade can be attributed to an anticipation of shipments before a new round of tariffs announced by the Trump government.
Washington has imposed up to 145% overflows on Chinese goods and tries to block products trade via countries such as Vietnam. Beijing responded with 125% rates on US items, but the measures were temporarily suspended after trading rounds in Geneva and London.
Amid the commercial offensive, President XI Jinping tries to complete a lasting agreement until August 12.
The Chinese government has led to the strength of exports and industry to maintain the economy stable and preserve its margin of maneuver in negotiations with Washington.
Tip industry and household stimuli help to support GDP
Chinese industrial production grew 6.8% in June, surpassing the projection of 5.7% of analysts. High -tech sectors such as robotics, electric vehicles, 3D printing and manufacturing of industrial equipment led the advance.
“High -tech manufacturing industries are boosting growth,” said Yuhan Zhang, a China Center economist at Conference Board.
Beijing also launched measures to stimulate domestic consumption, including a durable goods exchange program with subsidies of 300 billion yuans (about $ 42 billion). Policy, focused on car renewal and appliances, showed a positive effect in the first months, but begins to give signs of exhaustion.
Investment in fixed assets grew 2.8% in the first half, below 3.7% registered between January and May. Private investment fell 0.6%, indicating uncertainties among entrepreneurs. The urban unemployment rate remained 5% in June.
Consumption and real estate sector remain fragile
Despite the good industrial performance, domestic consumption follows below expectations. Retail sales grew 4.8% in June in the annual comparison, a drop from May 6.4%.
Analysts point out that the impulse generated by consumption stimulation policies may have reached its limit.
In the real estate sector, new real estate prices fell 3.7% compared to June 2024 – the largest monthly drop in eight months. Second -hand residential properties retreated 6% in the same period.
Retraction persists even after several rounds of measures adopted by the government to contain devaluation and reheat the sector.
According to Sheng Laiyun, deputy director of NBS, real estate market performance represents a “standardization” after the peak of the crisis, but the basis of economic recovery still needs to be strengthened.
“We must be aware of the many external uncertainties and the insufficiency of domestic demand,” he said.
Beijing bets on stimulus and stability to avoid further deceleration
Economist Gu Qingyang of the National University of Singapore told BBC that growth in the second quarter has benefited from a combination of stimuli and commercial truce, but the second semester tends to be more unstable.
“A stronger stimuli package may be necessary. Still, reaching the 5% growth seems viable,” he said.
Dan Wang, director of consulting firm Eurasia Group, estimates that Beijing will do everything to avoid more acute slowdling.
“China should defend a 4%floor, which is the politically acceptable minimum,” he told the BBC.
Even in the face of external pressures, the Chinese government has shown adaptability. The strategy of strengthening industry, diversification of commercial partners and activation of the domestic market shows that the Chinese economy maintains a maneuver space – and resistance – amid the new clash with the United States.
Source: vermelho.org.br
