Published 03/12/2026 14:09 | Edited 03/12/2026 14:23
Since the beginning of the joint offensive between the United States and Israel against Iranian territory, in February (28), the geopolitical scenario in the Middle East has undergone a radical transformation that goes beyond the destruction of infrastructure. What Washington and Tel Aviv planned as a “strategic coercion” operation to force regime change – culminating in the attack that killed Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei – resulted in a phenomenon not calculated by Western strategists: the retreat of internal opposition and the strengthening of an Iranian national union. External aggression not only increased support for the government in Tehran, it also generated a wave of repudiation even among parts of the population and the so-called Iranian diaspora that historically opposed the theocratic system.
Surveys carried out among the Iranian community in Europe and Turkey and within the US show that although migrants are critical of their country’s internal policies, the majority are against foreign attacks. The predominant feeling is that national sovereignty and the integrity of the people are above political disagreements. This “unity in pain” responds directly to what is perceived as imperialist aggression that affects civilian targets, as denounced by Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi. The practical result is the strengthening of a social resilience that makes the strategy of regime change via bombing a historical miscalculation by Western powers.
Forced neutrality of Middle Eastern countries
While building up forces internally, Tehran has used the Strait of Hormuz as diplomatic leverage. Iran has promoted the selective release of cargo ships and oil tankers destined for countries in the BRICS bloc, such as China and India. Alternative oil shipping routes have favored Turkey.
Aggressors are now beginning to face distrust from traditional partners. Damascus, under intense pressure and threats of expansion of the conflict into its own territory, maintains forced neutrality, serving as a barometer of regional caution. Turkey, in turn, denied logistical support or use of its airspace, emphasizing that it will not be part of a conflict that would destabilize the regional balance. The government in Ankara expresses its opposition to the United States’ stance of favoring dissident groups and militias that threaten the integrity of borders and peace in the region.
Countries such as Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates also show discontent. Diplomatic reports indicate a feeling of “abandonment”, with the perception that the operation was designed only to protect the interests of Israel and US troops, leaving neighbors exposed to retaliation. The lack of advance warning about the date of the initial strike and the rapid depletion of local anti-missile interceptor stocks created a deep crisis of trust between Washington and historic Gulf allies.
Energy shock and the impact on the North American domestic economy
The oil market reflects the gravity of the situation. The price of a barrel of Brent registered peaks of US$ 120 and has now found fragile stabilization in the US$ 85-90 range. The containment came after the International Energy Agency (IEA) coordinated the emergency release of 400 million barrels of strategic reserves. However, analysts warn that this is a precarious solution.
The financial analysis reveals a profound disparity in the Donald Trump administration’s priorities. Upon completing the second week, the military spending bill already exceeds US$ 11.3 billion. The US spent on just 7 days of war, for example, the equivalent of the entire annual budget of cancer research ($7.4 billion) or the equivalent of funding for child nutrition programs.
This expense occurs at a time of rising inflation, when the price of gasoline in the US has risen 17%. If Trump drags out the war until the end of the year, the total economic impact on the North American economy is estimated at up to US$215 billion. Close to 1% of US GDP
The failure of quick victory
The expectation of a “quick war”, planned by sectors of the right and the extreme right in Washington and Tel Aviv, proved to be an illusion. Iran not only survived the initial coup, but also began to hold the initiative on several fronts, with the combined use of troops and militias integrated into structures in Iraq and Lebanon. This ensures that, even under intense bombardment, the Iranian deterrent power remains active and capable of causing severe collateral damage to the naval fleet and US bases in Jordan and Bahrain.
Without an achievable political objective and with costs growing at the rate of almost a billion dollars a day, the imperialist alignment of Trump and Netanyahu risks facing not only a strategic defeat in the Middle East, but of provoking a global economic crisis. The insistence on the use of force, to the detriment of diplomacy, reveals itself as a mistake whose consequences the entire world is beginning to feel.
Source: vermelho.org.br
