Left increases advantage with Cepeda and leads presidential race in Colombia

Left-wing senator Iván Cepeda appears in the lead in the Colombian presidential race, according to a survey released this Sunday (25) by the Centro Nacional de Consultoría (CNC) in partnership with the magazine Change. Cepeda — from the Pacto Histórico coalition, which supports Gustavo Petro’s government — has 28.2% of voting intentions, a percentage that consolidates him as the main favorite for the election scheduled for May 31st.

Next comes the right-wing candidate Abelardo de la Espriella, with 15.5%, followed by the centrist Sergio Fajardo, who reaches 9.8%. The survey reinforces a trend already observed in other recent surveys, published by vehicles such as The Time e RCN Newswhich also point to Cepeda leading the way.

The leadership reflects not only support for Petro’s legacy, but also the relative cohesion of the left in the face of the deep fragmentation of the center-right.

Second round scenarios favor the left

In second round simulations, Cepeda maintains a significant advantage. In a possible direct confrontation with De la Espriella, the Historic Pact candidate would reach 45.2% of the votes, against 25.7% for his opponent, according to the CNC. The result indicates a comfortable margin, although with a relevant contingent of undecided voters.

The data suggests that, even without achieving an absolute majority in the first round, Cepeda enters the decisive stage of the election strengthened, benefiting from the dispersion of candidacies in the conservative and centrist camp.

Fragmented right and center in search of alliances

The research highlights the fragmentation of the right and center-right, which present multiple candidates with modest performance. In addition to De la Espriella, names such as Paloma Valencia, Vicky Dávila and Juan Manuel Galán appear with low percentages, especially when analyzed outside interparty consultations.

In the center field, Sergio Fajardo maintains an intermediate position, but faces difficulties in closing the gap in relation to the first two placed. Analysts point out that a possible alliance between Fajardo and other centrist leaders, such as Claudia López, could reposition this bloc in the dispute for the second round.

However, time is short: the primaries take place on March 8th, and candidate registration ends on February 6th. Without quick coordination, the center risks being left out of the decisive dispute.

Cepeda and Petro’s political legacy

An ally of President Gustavo Petro, Cepeda represents the continuity of the current government’s political project, supported by a coalition of progressive forces. Its leadership in the polls occurs in a sensitive economic context, marked by debates about inflation and public accounts after the 23% adjustment in the minimum wage announced by Petro, widely supported by the population.

Even so, the government’s assessment remains relatively balanced: 48.8% of those interviewed declare that they have a positive image of the president, while 42.1% evaluate his administration negatively, according to the same survey.

Open election, but with a clear favorite

Carried out between January 15th and 21st, the CNC survey interviewed 2,202 people in 56 municipalities. The data indicates that, although the scenario remains open and dependent on the alliances that will be formed by March, Iván Cepeda enters the final stretch of the campaign as the most competitive name.

With an electorate still marked by high levels of indecision and blank votes, the Colombian presidential election remains dynamic. The historic abstention in Colombia and the novelty of the single ballot — with all candidates listed together — increase the risk of confusion and invalid votes.

Still, Cepeda’s consistent leadership points to a dispute in which the left is ahead, while its opponents are left with a race against time to unify — or witness the consolidation of the first re-election of a progressive project in the country’s recent history.