Published 27/02/2025 11:38 | Edited 27/02/2025 13:01
Germany faces a new phase of political uncertainty after last Sunday’s early parliamentary elections (23). With the Christian Democratic Union (CDU) winning without absolute majority and the extreme right consolidated as the second largest strength, the formation of the next government has become one of the country’s main challenges.
Negotiations for the composition of the coalition are expected to extend for the coming weeks, while different political blocks try to make a stable cabinet viable.
CDU leader Friedrich Merz, appointed as the new chancellor, needs to ensure the support of other acronyms to form government. The options include an alliance with the green or a great coalition with the Olaf Scholz Social Democratic Party (SPD).
However, internal resistance within subtitles and programmatic differences make it difficult.
The possibility of a “Germany” coalition (CDU, Pretos; SPD, reds; and FDP, yellows) was also ventilated, but faces resistance from social democrats. The chance is minimal, since Democratic Liberal Party (FDP) did not reach the barrier clause when the acronym does not get 5% of the votes.
The liberals were the pivots of the political crisis in Germany that preceded the elections for February, previously scheduled for November. The FDP disagreed with Scholz’s proposal to include the budget more public investments to accelerate the Capenga economy.
The rise of the alternative to Germany (AFD), which obtained significant growth, adds an instability factor. Although the other parties discard formal alliances with the far right, CDU voted in January together with the ultranationalist caption on immigration issues, which generated criticism and a wave of protests in several German cities.
The role of the far right and the erosion of the sanitary cord
With about 21% of the electorate, AFD strengthened in Parliament and consolidated political influence, even without integrating the government. The party has been pressured by anti-immigration guidelines and hardening of security policies, with the support of CDU sectors.
Some members of the CDU, especially in eastern Germany, where AFD has a strong support base, have more openly defended dialogue with AFD.
The idea of these sectors was to try to find a “pragmatic balance”, considering that AFD, despite being seen as an undemocratic political force, has great support in certain regions and specific questions such as immigration.
These parliamentarians pointed out that ignoring or demonizing AFD could alienate CDU voters, especially in the context of an electorate who feels disillusioned with traditional parties.
An example of this occurred in 2024, when members of the CDU, such as local parliamentarian Thorsten Frei, a CDU member in Baden-Württemberg, Germany’s third most populous state, publicly expressed that it was important to hear the concerns of voters who support AFD and even consider their demands without necessarily giving in to fundamental issues of democracy.
Frei suggested that the CDU should move away from a rigid “sanitary cord” and be willing to deal with the challenges presented by AFD, especially in terms of migratory and social policies.
This alignment has generated contrary reactions within the CDU itself, with politicians warning of the risk of normalizing the far right within the institutions.
The clash on civil society organizations
The Union (CDU/CSU) presented an appointment to the federal government questioning the financing and political neutrality of 18 NGOs, including Greenpeace (Environmental Organization), Correctiv (Investigative Journalism) and grandparents against the far right (political organization).
The document, with 551 questions, raises fears of persecution of civil society, especially after protests against the approach of the CDU with the far right.
The initiative echoes strategies used by right -wing governments in countries such as Hungary and Brazil, and rekindles the dispute over the CDU, barred by CDU in the last government. Progressive parties and organizations accuse Merz of adopting AFD tactics to silence criticism and undermine the performance of anti -fascist and environmental groups.
The consultation generates tensions in government formation, with SPD classifying it as a “dirty game” and warning of risks in negotiations with CDU. NGOs react by stating that the action is intimidating and that the party reproduces narratives of the extreme global right.
Economic crisis and challenges for governability
The new German government will face an adverse economic scenario. Europe’s largest economy has recessed for the second year in a row, with GDP shrinking 0.2% in 2024. The high cost of energy, the loss of industrial competitiveness and the stagnation of domestic consumption are some of the factors that aggravate the country’s economic framework.
The economic crisis has already had a direct impact on politics, contributing to the fall of Scholz’s coalition and boosting the growth of the far right. Dissatisfaction with the government intensified in the face of lack of effective measures to contain inflation and industrial deceleration, especially in sectors that depended on cheap energy before the war in Ukraine.
The German budget for 2025 will also be one of the main challenges of the next coalition. While CDU defends tax cuts and reducing public spending, SPD and green argue that it is necessary to invest in infrastructure and reindustrialization to reverse the economic decline.
International pressure is also an instability factor. Donald Trump’s second term in the United States has imposed commercial challenges on Germany, with the threat of tariffs on European products, especially in the automotive sector. In addition, the growing tension between Berlin and Moscow, aggravated by German support to Ukraine, maintains the country’s economy under pressure.
Perspectives for the coming months
The way for a new government in Germany remains uncertain. Negotiations between the parties will define not only the composition of the new coalition, but also the country’s political orientation in the coming years.
Social pressure against the far right and economic challenges should directly influence the future government, which will have to deal with a fragmented parliament and a strengthened opposition.
Regardless of the final configuration, the new cabinet will face the challenge of balanced economic growth, political stability and the maintenance of democratic commitment to the growing radicalization of public debate in Germany.
Source: vermelho.org.br
