China and Russia support successor in Iran against Trump’s threats

World geopolitics reached a new level with the consolidation of the succession in Iran. In a process conducted under explosions and imperialist siege, the Assembly of Experts elected Mujtaba Khamenei as the new Supreme Leader. The response from global powers was immediate. The Beijing-Moscow axis ratified the legitimacy of the election, while the White House deepened the direct threats, classifying Mujtaba Khamenei’s inauguration as “unacceptable”.

The speed with which China and Russia sent their acknowledgments signals a diplomatic barrier against the isolation sought by the West. Vladimir Putin promised continued strategic cooperation, while the Chinese government — which is coordinating the withdrawal of more than 10,000 citizens from the conflict zone — defended the election as an act of self-determination against “unilateral hegemonism”.

Brazil and other Latin American nations remained silent. In the opposite camp, the G7 powers — notably the United Kingdom, Germany and Canada — aligned themselves with Donald Trump’s ultimatum, classifying the election as “illegitimate” and “an affront to democratic aspirations”’. However, this alignment is not unanimous: France and Spain have expressed open criticism of Washington’s military conduct, with President Emmanuel Macron classifying the offensive operations as “outside international law”, which highlights a crisis of unity in the transatlantic alliance in the face of Tehran’s sovereign resistance.

Why Iran’s defeat would be a disaster for its neighbors

For countries that share direct borders with the Islamic Republic — Türkiye, Azerbaijan and Armenia —, the “regime change” speech preached by Trump and Benjamin Netanyahu is viewed with deep fear. Although there are historical differences, these countries understand that Iran is the key that prevents a chain collapse in the region.

For these nations, Iranian defeat would provoke a unprecedented refugee crisis, in which Türkiye and Armenia would be the immediate destinations of millions of displaced people, worsening internal humanitarian and social crises. THE power vacuum the eventual weakening of Tehran would open space for the arming of separatist groups on the borders, threatening the territorial integrity of Türkiye itself. And, finally, it would promote a Energy insecurity, interrupting the flow of natural gas and the security of vital trade routes for Azerbaijan.

Trade with neighbors remains despite the war

Trade between Türkiye and Iran remains normalized, with exchange reaching US$5.5 billion in 2025. Ankara, which depends on Iranian gas to supply 14% of local supply, keeps transactions and businesses functioning. Which reveals that Tehran’s stability is, above all, an economic necessity for its neighbors. THE Türkiye has already signaled that the worst for Iran is the worst for all its neighbors. The understanding in Ankara is that the destruction of Iranian sovereignty only serves the interests of extra-regional forces that seek to redraw the map of the region through chaos.