Gaza/Palestine – 01/16/2025 – Israeli airstrikes killed more than 70 people in Gaza overnight, residents and medical services said, hours after a ceasefire and hostage release agreement was announced to put end 15 months of war between Israel and Hamas. Photo: RS/Fotos Públicas

Israel’s security cabinet accepted the ceasefire agreement with Hamas this Friday (17), which is expected to come into force on Sunday, according to the Israeli prime minister’s office. After this smaller group, the agreement needs to be voted on by the entire government.

Israel’s war in Gaza has killed at least 46,876 Palestinians and injured 110,642 since October 7, 2023. At least 1,139 people were killed in Israel during Hamas-led attacks that day and more than 200 were taken prisoner.

The ceasefire agreed by Israel and the Palestinian group Hamas has brought some optimism that Israel’s 15-month war in Gaza will finally end and Israeli and Palestinian prisoners will be released. But there is still uncertainty among analysts that the agreement, announced on Wednesday (15) and scheduled to begin on Sunday, will continue as planned.

Ceasefire or strategic continuity?

For Mourad, the agreement, divided into three phases, represents a moment of strategic pause. The first phase, already being implemented, includes prisoner exchanges and intensive monitoring. However, subsequent steps remain undefined. He questions what will happen after the initial 42-day period: “What will it be like from now on? The Palestinian resistance will have to adopt new strategies, and this will be determined by the dynamics on the ground and by local and international political decisions.”

Dividing the agreement into three phases opens the potential for its terms to be violated or for parties—particularly Israel—to backtrack on its terms. The agreement stipulates that an initial 42-day phase — which calls for the handover of some captives and prisoners, an Israeli withdrawal from populated areas and an increase in aid — will be followed by additional phases in which more prisoner exchanges will take place, as well as a withdrawal. permanent Israeli settlement of Gaza and a sustainable ceasefire.

Distrust surrounding this process is widespread, especially among Palestinians and their allies. There are fears that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, who has resisted a ceasefire for months and insisted that Hamas must be destroyed, will resume hostilities after prisoners are recovered to supposedly “punish” the Palestinian group, reinforce Israel’s security and ensuring its own political survival, while blaming Hamas for the failure of the agreement.

As an example, just see that Hezbollah and Israel reached a ceasefire agreement on November 26 to end more than 14 months of fighting since the start of Israel’s war in Gaza. However, Lebanese authorities have reported more than 564 Israeli violations of the ceasefire, including the deaths of 37 people and injuries to 45 others. A spokesman for the organization said that at least 116 people have been killed in Israeli strikes in Gaza since the announcement in three days.

Threat over the West Bank

Emir Mouad, secretary general of the Palestinian Latin American and Caribbean Confederation (Coplac)

In an interview with Red PortalEmir Mourad, secretary general of the Palestinian Latin American and Caribbean Confederation (Coplac), shared analysis of this recent ceasefire agreement in Gaza and the consequences it could bring to the region.

Following the ceasefire agreement in Gaza, Israel’s cabinet added increasing security in the West Bank to its list of war objectives, the Israeli Broadcasting Authority reported. This news comes amid the Palestinian Authority’s crackdown on armed groups in the city of Jenin and the Israeli army’s growing willingness to deploy air power against cities in the occupied West Bank.

Mourad highlighted that the signed agreement does not cover the West Bank, where attempts to annex and expand Israeli colonies are ongoing, fueling a scenario of tension and resistance.

“What is happening in the West Bank is part of a long-term Zionist project that dates back to 1948. This process of ethnic cleansing continues to this day. Agreements with Israel have historically proven to be unreliable, as we saw in Oslo in 1993. Caution is needed when assessing the impacts and true intentions behind these treaties,” said Mourad.

The increase in colonies and the displacement of Palestinian communities are often described as part of a process of “ethnic cleansing” that, according to some scholars, perpetuates the Zionist project of territorial domination. The 1993 Oslo agreement, which promised a two-state solution, is an emblematic example of how commitments made often do not translate into concrete advances.

Israel’s historical perspective and political goals

According to Mourad, the recent ceasefire is another stage in a protracted and multifaceted war. He stressed that the destruction of Palestinian resistance and the expulsion of residents of northern Gaza are clear objectives of Israel. However, these goals have not been fully achieved, which indicates that the situation in the region is far from a definitive solution.

The Coplac secretary general also pointed to the political turmoil in Israel, where Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu faces challenges in maintaining his government coalition. “Netanyahu’s fear is that the government will fall with a vote of no confidence in parliament. But he seems to have found internal support to continue with the agreement”, commented Mourad.

“The current ceasefire is just a battle, not the final war. This illusion of pacification ignores that the agreement is not one of peace, but of a temporary cessation of hostilities. The Palestinian resistance is restructuring and new strategies will be adopted as reality evolves”, explained Mourad.

Humanitarian impacts and the need for reconstruction

Although Mourad expressed distrust of the terms of the agreement, he acknowledged the importance of the ceasefire in alleviating the humanitarian crisis. The Palestinian people face extreme challenges, such as the urgent need to rebuild healthcare infrastructure and reintegrate displaced communities.

“This temporary agreement provides a breather for people, allowing them to rebuild their lives. But what will it be like in 42 days, when the ceasefire ends? International pressure must continue to guarantee minimum conditions of survival and dignity for the Palestinian people”, he emphasized.

The role of the United States and international political dynamics

He highlighted that both the Biden administration and former President Donald Trump were interested in mediating the agreement, but for different reasons. Biden seeks to mitigate the impact of international criticism of the Palestinian genocide and leave a positive legacy at the end of his term. Trump, in a more pragmatic approach, sees the Middle East as a stage for business and strengthening strategic alliances with oil powers.

He stated that the Biden administration seeks to turn the ceasefire into a political victory, especially in the face of pressure from allies and the domestic public. However, the continuity of policies such as military financing for Israel prevents this intention from being implemented. During the 15 months of escalation that resulted in thousands of deaths, Washington was widely criticized for its unrestricted support for Israeli actions.

“This genocide that killed more than 50 thousand people had North American approval. Now, Biden is trying to disguise the events and present himself as a mediator. On the other hand, Donald Trump also exploits the situation, prioritizing alliances in the Middle East and with oil countries”, analyzed Mourad.

Expectations and uncertainties

In concluding, Mourad highlighted the fragility of the agreements signed and the challenges that still need to be faced. According to him, the future of Palestine and the region will depend on how the Palestinian resistance, the international community and the governments involved deal with the next phases of this complex geopolitical board.

“We will follow the new moves in this game. The Palestinian resistance is alive and will continue to fight for their rights”, declared Mourad, highlighting the importance of global mobilization in support of the Palestinian cause.

Source: vermelho.org.br



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