Argentina has a 99% chance of entering a technical recession

A technical recession is when the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) falls for two consecutive quarters compared to the previous quarter. And that is what is about to happen to Argentina, which has a 99% chance of economic activity contracting in the next six months.

This percentage was calculated by the Financial Research Center at Torcuato Di Tella University, in Argentina, and released last Thursday (19). The data supports predictions from December, when the probability of recession hitting the country governed by Javier Milei was already 98%.

Thus, contrary to all the economic information that the liberal media tries to convey about the economic situation in Argentina, the Research Center reveals that, in the real world, the situation is very different.

To arrive at the result, the Leader Index (IL) is used, a methodology composed of “ten series selected from more than one hundred, based on the criteria of conformity, temporal consistency, economic rationality, representativeness, availability and timeliness”.

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The Stock Exchange index, automotive sector sales, soybean production, Value Added Tax (VAT) revenue and the center’s own Consumer Confidence and Industrial Production Indexes, among other components, are taken into account.

The most recent IL data showed that January recorded a 0.58% drop in economic activity, supporting data from November and December last year that pointed to the risk of recession.

In annual terms, the Leader Index decreased by 1.99% compared to January 2025 in the seasonally adjusted series.

To the Argentine website Page 12researcher Martín González Rozada, one of those responsible for the study, comments on the factors that lowered the index in the month: “The fall in the IL in January is mainly due to the decline in stock market indices, industrial production indices and VAT revenue in real terms”, he observes.